Gap Down & Early Weakness
Can Buyers Recover?
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
📉 Gap Down & Early Weakness – Can Buyers Recover?
🔍 Market Overview: Sellers in Control to Start the Week
Markets opened with a gap down, signaling early selling pressure and potential continuation of last week’s downside momentum.
Sellers remain in control, pushing prices below critical support levels as the session begins.
Buyers will need to reclaim key pivot levels to prevent a deeper flush toward sub-5600 ($ES) and sub-19500 ($NQ).
📊 Key Market Open Pivots:
🔸 $ES Open Pivot: 5699
🔸 $NQ Open Pivot: 19911
📌 Key Levels & Trading Plan
📉 Downside Risks – Can Bears Continue the Selloff?
🔻 5685 ($ES) & 19850 ($NQ) – First Major Support Test
If these levels fail to hold, expect continued downside.
A break below could trigger another wave of selling into sub-5600 ($ES) and 19500 ($NQ).
🔻 5650 ($ES) & 19600 ($NQ) – Next Bearish Targets
Should selling pressure increase, these levels will be the next major downside targets.
📈 Bullish Reversal? Key Levels for Buyers
🔹 5718 ($ES) & 19968 ($NQ) – Critical Reclaim Levels
Buyers must reclaim these zones to attempt a gap-fill rally back to 5780s ($ES) and 20200 ($NQ).
If buyers fail to reclaim, expect choppy price action with further downside risk.
🔹 5784 ($ES) & 20250 ($NQ) – Key Breakout Zones
A sustained move above these levels signals bullish control and can trigger a larger recovery rally.
📚 Market Education: Understanding Gap Fills & Market Weakness
🔎 What Does a Gap Down Mean?
A gap down suggests overnight selling pressure, often fueled by global market weakness or fundamental catalysts.
If price stays below the gap-down open, it indicates continued bearish sentiment.
If price reclaims and fills the gap, it suggests buyers absorbing the selling pressure.
🔎 When to Expect a Gap Fill?
Fast Gap Fill: If buyers reclaim the open pivots quickly, a gap fill back to 5780s ($ES) and 20200 ($NQ) is likely.
Weak Reclaim: If price struggles at reclaim levels, sellers may use it as a liquidity zone to reload shorts.
No Attempt to Fill: If price continues trending lower, expect accelerated downside momentum.
🔎 Trading Plan & Scenarios for Today
📍 Scenario 1: Reclaim & Gap Fill (Bullish)
Buyers reclaim 5718 ($ES) & 19968 ($NQ) → potential rally into 5780s & 20200.
Confirmation: 30m candle close above these levels.
Target: 5784 ($ES), 20250 ($NQ).
📍 Scenario 2: Holding Below Open Pivots & Further Selloff (Bearish)
If price stays below 5699 ($ES) & 19911 ($NQ), expect further selling into sub-5600 & 19500.
Target: 5650 ($ES) & 19600 ($NQ).
📍 Scenario 3: Chop & Consolidation (Neutral)
If price holds between 5718-5780 ($ES) and 19968-20200 ($NQ), expect sideways trading before a larger move.
Key Breakout Levels: 5784 ($ES) & 20250 ($NQ).
📌 Final Thoughts – Key Levels to Watch
✔ Sellers remain in control after the gap down.
✔ 5718 ($ES) & 19968 ($NQ) are must-reclaim levels to signal any bullish attempt.
✔ Failure to reclaim could trigger another big leg lower.
✔ Watch how price reacts at 5685-5650 ($ES) and 19850-19600 ($NQ).
🔎 Stay nimble, follow the key levels, and let price action confirm the next move!