High Conviction Selling
Key Levels Into the Close
🔥 Power Hour Update for Subscribers
📉 High Conviction Selling – Key Levels Into the Close
🔍 Market Recap: Relentless Selling & Key Levels Ahead
Today's session has been dominated by high conviction selling, with price action rejecting our 5718 level and plummeting nearly 140 points on $ES, nearly reaching our 5565 downside target.
With just an hour left in the session, the key question now is:
➡️ Will sellers keep control and close below 5600?
➡️ Can buyers reclaim key levels to attempt a relief rally?
📊 Power Pivots for the Close:
🔸 $ES: 5600
🔸 $NQ: 19376
📌 Key Levels & Market Structure
📉 Bearish Continuation – More Downside If These Hold
🔻 $ES Below 5600 & $NQ Below 19376 – Weak Close Means More Selling
A daily close below 5600 can indicate further downside.
$NQ losing 19376 suggests sellers remain firmly in control.
🔻 Next Downside Targets:
✔ 5565 ($ES) & 19250 ($NQ) – Immediate Support
✔ 5520 ($ES) & 19000 ($NQ) – Extended Targets if Selling Continues
⚠️ Key Risk: Any break below 5565 ($ES) or 19250 ($NQ) could accelerate selling further, triggering stop runs and forcing more liquidations.
📈 What Buyers Need to Do – Potential Relief Rally
🔹 Buyers Must Reclaim 5590 & 5628 ($ES) – First Signs of a Bounce
If price closes above these, it could trigger a relief rally.
Watch for a 30-minute close above these levels to confirm strength.
🔹 Relief Rally Targets:
✔ 5650 ($ES) & 19550 ($NQ) – First Reversal Zone
✔ 5685 ($ES) & 19800 ($NQ) – Larger Bounce Target
🔹 Key for a Short-Term Bottom:
If price holds above 5628 ($ES) and 19400 ($NQ) into the close, it could indicate that sellers are taking profits.
This may lead to chop & consolidation tomorrow before another leg lower or a meaningful bounce attempt.
📚 Market Education: Why We’ve Been Focused on Short Setups
📌 What is High Conviction Selling?
When price rejects key levels without hesitation and continues lower, it signals strong seller control.
Today’s price action confirmed our 5718 rejection, making shorts the best trade of the day.
Sellers never let buyers gain control, making it nearly impossible for long trades to hold.
📌 Why a Close Below 5600 Matters
Closing below a major psychological level (like 5600) signals continued bearish momentum.
It keeps short sellers in control going into tomorrow’s session.
Reclaiming it before the close? Could signal that buyers are absorbing and we see a short-term bounce.
📌 How We Caught the Short Move
Key Clue: 5718 rejection with no follow-through from buyers.
Entry: Below 5685 confirmed weakness, shorts were favored.
Exit/Target: 5565 nearly hit, locking in big gains.
🔎 Trading Plan for the Final Hour
📍 Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation & Breakdown into the Close (Most Likely)
Below 5600 ($ES) & 19376 ($NQ), expect more downside.
Sellers will target 5565 ($ES) and 19250 ($NQ).
Look for selling pressure into the close to confirm continued downside.
📍 Scenario 2: Buyers Reclaim & Relief Rally
A reclaim of 5628 ($ES) & 19400 ($NQ) suggests a short-term bounce.
This can push prices toward 5650-5685 ($ES) & 19550-19800 ($NQ).
Look for a strong 30-minute candle close above 5628 to confirm strength.
📌 Final Thoughts – Bearish Until Proven Otherwise
✔ Sellers have remained in full control all session.
✔ A close below 5600 & 19376 could trigger further downside.
✔ Buyers must reclaim 5628 & 19400 for a bounce attempt.
✔ Watch the 5565 & 19250 levels for potential acceleration moves.
🔎 Stick to the plan, follow the key levels, and let price action confirm the next move!