Morning Market Update for Subscribers
Turnaround Tuesday? Weakness Emerging After Buyers Stumble
Morning Market Update for Subscribers
🔍 Turnaround Tuesday? Weakness Emerging After Buyers Stumble
📌 Overview of Today’s Market Setup
Yesterday’s price action hinted at exhaustion, as buyers failed to secure a daily close above 6107 on $ES—an important level for confirming sustained bullish momentum. This was a key warning sign that bullish control was fading.
Now, the market is potentially setting up for a Turnaround Tuesday, where we often see a reversal of Monday’s rally, bringing the possibility of further downside pressure.
Today's session will revolve around whether sellers can maintain control below key inflection levels or if buyers will fight to reclaim lost ground and attempt to stabilize the uptrend.
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📊 Market Overview & Open Pivots
🔸 $ES Open Pivot: 6067
🔸 $NQ Open Pivot: 21720
These pivots define the intraday balance point—the battle zone where buyers and sellers are competing for control.
🔹 Key Daily Bias Levels:
6075 ($ES) & 21757 ($NQ) → Bullish above, bearish below.
6062 ($ES) → "Line in the sand" for sellers. A failure to reclaim this level opens the door for liquidation.
🔻 If sellers hold below 6062, they can force a bigger drop.
🔹 If buyers reclaim above 6075, they can neutralize downside pressure and attempt a rally.
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📌 Key Levels to Watch
🚀 Upside Potential – Bulls Need to Reclaim
✅ 6075 ($ES) / 21757 ($NQ) – Key Daily Bias
Buyers need to reclaim this level to shift momentum back to bullish.
Holding above keeps the door open for another push toward 6107 ($ES) and 21885 ($NQ).
This level represents resistance-turned-support, meaning it must flip for any continuation to the upside.
🎯 Upside Targets if buyers take control:
6107 ($ES) → Breakout confirmation level
21885 ($NQ) → Next major resistance
If 6107 breaks, the next major target is 6131.
❌ Downside Risks – Where Sellers Take Control
🔻 6062 ($ES) – The Most Important Level Today
If buyers fail to reclaim this level, sellers remain in control, and liquidation becomes likely.
📍 If 6062 fails, next downside targets:
6040 ($ES) → First support test
6000-6015 ($ES) → Deeper liquidation zone
21485 ($NQ) → Key demand zone from last week
If the market breaks below 6062 and fails to recover, expect aggressive selling.
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📚 Market Education: How to Identify a Market Transition
📌 What is a Market Transition?
A market transition occurs when momentum shifts from one side (bullish or bearish) to the other. These shifts can be difficult to spot in real-time because they often involve traps, false breakouts, and erratic price action.
Recognizing a transition early is crucial for positioning ahead of the next major move.
📌 How to Recognize a Transition in Price Action
1️⃣ Failed Breakouts: Yesterday’s rejection at 6107 signaled that buyers were running out of steam. Failed breakouts are one of the earliest signs that momentum is shifting.
2️⃣ Lower Highs / Lower Lows: If price continues making lower highs while testing the same support levels, it suggests distribution instead of accumulation.
3️⃣ Aggressive Selling at Resistance: If sellers continue defending the same levels (e.g., 6075 or 6062) and buyers can’t push through, it means supply is overwhelming demand.
4️⃣ Accelerated Moves After Key Breakdowns: If 6062 breaks today and we see sharp liquidation, it confirms that sellers are fully in control.
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💡 Why Market Transitions Are Tricky but Rewarding
🔴 Difficult: Transitions create choppy price action, making it easy to get stopped out if you're too aggressive or too early.
✅ Rewarding: Catching a transition early allows traders to position themselves ahead of the next major move.
✅ Key Tip: Watch for daily closes as confirmation. A close under 6062 today would strongly favor further downside into midweek.
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🔎 Trading Scenarios for Today
📍 Scenario 1: Failed Breakdown → Reversal Long
If sellers push below 6062 but fail to hold, watch for a look below and fail setup, where price bounces back above 6075.
Target: A retest of 6107, then 6131.
Stop-loss: Below 6062.
📍 Scenario 2: Breakdown & Continuation Short
If 6062 gives way and sellers maintain control, look for a pullback rejection at 6075 and continuation toward 6040 and 6015.
Target: 6000 breakdown zone.
Stop-loss: Above 6083.
📍 Scenario 3: Slow Chop & Decision Hold
If price bases between 6062-6075, expect a grind day where momentum stalls and the next move is reserved for tomorrow.
Key: Wait for a decisive breakout above 6075 or below 6062 before committing to a trend trade.
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📌 Final Thoughts – Expect Volatility & Stay Adaptive
✔ Sellers are trying to force a liquidation move. If they succeed below 6062, expect a sharp drop.
✔ Buyers still have a chance to neutralize the downside, but they must reclaim 6075 to regain control.
✔ Market transitions are happening—watch price action closely to confirm whether we’re shifting from bullish to bearish momentum.
🚨 Key Takeaways for Today:
🔹 Watch how price reacts at 6062 and 6075—they will dictate whether today is bullish or bearish.
🔹 If sellers control 6062, expect downside toward 6040 and lower.
🔹 If buyers reclaim 6075, we could see a test of 6107 again.
👀 Stay disciplined, follow the key levels, and let price action dictate the trade.