Morning Market Update for Subscribers
More Selling or Temporary Relief?
📢 Morning Market Update for Subscribers
📅 Market Outlook & Key Trading Levels
🔍 Market Overview: More Selling or Temporary Relief?
The market continues to slide lower after an end-of-day rally yesterday failed to hold. As we head into today's session, prices are opening with a slightly bearish tone, suggesting that sellers still have control.
The key question remains: Is another wave of selling imminent, or is it too soon for a major breakdown?
We’re now at a critical decision zone—whether buyers can defend key levels or if the market flushes lower toward new lows.
📊 Open Pivots & Market Structure
🔸 $ES Open Pivot: 5790
🔸 $NQ Open Pivot: 20431
These pivots act as today’s balance point—staying below favors sellers, while holding above can stabilize the market.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
📈 Upside Potential – Can Buyers Hold the Line?
✅ 5807 ($ES) & 20430 ($NQ) – The First Test for Buyers
Prices must stay under these levels to keep sellers in control.
If the market reclaims these levels, we could see a short-term bounce toward resistance.
🎯 Upside Targets if Buyers Take Control:
5861 ($ES) & 20600 ($NQ) → First resistance zones before any bigger breakout attempts.
5930-5962 ($ES) & 20900 ($NQ) → Major resistance and short-covering trigger.
📉 Downside Risks – Are We Setting Up for Another Flush?
🔻 5784 ($ES) & 20250 ($NQ) – The Key Breakdown Zones
These levels must hold to avoid a major breakdown.
Trading below these zones increases the risk of another big sell-off.
🔻 5740 ($ES) & 20000 ($NQ) – The Next Major Downside Targets
If today’s action stays below 5784 & 20250, a wave of selling could push price toward these lower targets.
Below 5720, the market could enter a deeper liquidation phase.
📍 Critical Downside Levels to Watch if Selling Resumes:
5740 ($ES) → First lower support zone
5700-5720 ($ES) → Next major liquidity area
19850 ($NQ) → Another potential downside target
📚 Market Education: The Importance of Chop & Consolidation
Before the market makes a major move, it often goes through a period of consolidation or chop.
📌 What Today’s Price Action Tells Us
🔹 A Tight Trading Range (5784-5861) Suggests Consolidation
Markets rarely move in a straight line—before a breakaway move, we often see choppy price action.
A break above 5861 favors short-term upside, while holding below 5784 favors continued selling.
🔹 Lower Highs & Weak Bounces Signal Potential Breakdown
If price can’t reclaim 5807 and 20430s, sellers will remain in control.
Weak bounces that get quickly sold into are a sign of underlying weakness.
💡 Key Takeaway: Expect chop and consolidation between 5784-5861 before a larger move. Staying below key levels increases the probability of another breakdown.
🔎 Trading Plan & Scenarios
📍 Scenario 1: Relief Rally Attempts – Buyers Step In
If price reclaims 5807 ($ES) and 20430 ($NQ), expect an attempt toward resistance.
Watch for a move toward 5861 ($ES) & 20600 ($NQ).
Upside Target: 5930-5962 ($ES) if momentum builds.
📍 Scenario 2: Breakdown & New Lows Incoming
If price fails at 5807 ($ES) and 20430 ($NQ), expect another wave of selling.
A break below 5784 & 20250 would open the door for a drop toward 5740 & 20000.
Downside Target: 5700s on ES, 19850 on NQ.
📍 Scenario 3: Range-Bound Chop – Market in Balance
If price remains between 5784-5861 ($ES) & 20250-20600 ($NQ), expect consolidation.
This could mean positioning before a larger breakout or breakdown.
📌 Final Thoughts – Watching for Confirmation
✔ Buyers must reclaim 5807 and 20430 to gain control.
✔ A failure to hold 5784 and 20250 could trigger another wave of selling.
✔ 5861 remains the key upside test before any larger rally attempt.
✔ Expect chop and consolidation before a larger directional move.
🔎 The daily close will determine whether we are setting up for a bounce or preparing for another sell-off. Stay patient, watch for potential traps, and trade based on confirmation rather than prediction.
💡 Stick to the plan, follow the levels, and let the market show its hand.
#SubscriberUpdate #MorningOutlook #MarketBreakdown