Morning Market Update for Subscribers
High Volatility Continues – Key Levels & Trading Plan
📈 Morning Market Update for Subscribers
🔍 High Volatility Continues – Key Levels & Trading Plan
📊 Market Overview & Open Pivots
Extreme volatility and highly impulsive moves continue, making this a difficult environment for new and struggling traders. Risk management and precise execution are critical right now.
📌 Open Pivots:
🔸 $ES: 5591
🔸 $NQ: 19531
✅ Key Observations:
Markets still favor downside, but recent sharp drops have created congestion zones where price stalls before its next move.
Upside levels to watch: 5609 ($ES) and 19622 ($NQ).
Downside levels to watch: 5551 ($ES) and 19405 ($NQ).
A break of either of these extremes could trigger a larger trending move.
Bulls need a daily close above 5622 to suggest a potential short-term bottom.
Sellers need a close below 5575 to confirm trend continuation lower.
📚 Market Education: Understanding Congestion Zones
🔍 What is a Congestion Zone?
Congestion occurs when price moves erratically within a tight range without clear direction. Instead of trending smoothly, the market whipsaws between support and resistance, causing frustration for traders.
🔹 How to Identify Congestion?
Price stalls near the same highs/lows repeatedly without breaking out.
Candles have large wicks on both ends, showing indecision.
Lower volume and slowing momentum after a big move.
🔹 Why is Congestion Important?
Congestion zones often precede a major breakout. When price breaks out of a congestion zone, it tends to trend in that direction strongly because trapped traders exit their losing positions.
If price stays inside congestion, expect reversals at key levels rather than continuation.
If price breaks out with strong momentum, expect a sustained move.
🔑 Key Levels & Trading Plan
🚀 Bullish Scenario – Buyers Need to Reclaim
✅ Key Upside Resistance Levels:
5609 ($ES) / 19622 ($NQ) → First resistance test.
5622 ($ES) / 19750 ($NQ) → A daily close above this zone could start a reversal attempt.
🔹 How to Trade It:
If price breaks 5609 ($ES) and 19622 ($NQ) and finds support on a retest, this could signal bullish momentum.
Watch for a move toward 5650-5675 ($ES) and 19870 ($NQ).
🔻 Bearish Scenario – Sellers Remain in Control
🚨 Key Downside Levels to Watch:
5551 ($ES) / 19405 ($NQ) → Critical support zone.
A break here can accelerate selling toward 5500 ($ES) and 19250 ($NQ).
🔹 How to Trade It:
If price rejects at 5609 ($ES) and 19622 ($NQ), look for short entries targeting 5551 ($ES) and 19405 ($NQ).
A daily close below 5575 confirms sellers still control the market.
📌 Final Thoughts – Key Takeaways for Today
✔ Volatility remains extreme – adapt risk accordingly.
✔ Expect reversals at congestion extremes before a breakout occurs.
✔ A close above 5622 ($ES) signals a potential bottoming attempt.
✔ A close below 5575 ($ES) keeps the trend lower and opens the door to deeper selling.
✔ Risk management is critical – avoid overtrading in a choppy market!
🔎 Be patient, trade with discipline, and let the market confirm direction before making aggressive plays!
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