Morning Market Update for Subscribers
Open Pivots: 5988 & 21067
📈 Morning Market Update for Subscribers
🔍 Market Overview & Open Pivots
$ES Open Pivot: 5988
$NQ Open Pivot: 21067
The market kicked off the week with a gap up on Sunday, a potential early sign that the previous sell-off was a one-off event rather than the start of a sustained downtrend. Overnight, that gap filled in, trapping sellers before rebounding higher.
Now, as we head into the regular trading session, we are set to gap up again. If this gap holds into RTH (regular trading hours) and price closes above 5975, it can confirm a short-term bottom and put the long-awaited 6050 retest level in play.
However, staying nimble is key—any signs of weakness could trigger another liquidation event. Watch for bear traps first, but be prepared to believe the move if sustained selling pressure emerges.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch
🚀 Upside Potential – What Bulls Need to Achieve
✅ 5975+ Hold & Close Above
A sustained move above 5975 can shift short-term momentum to the upside.
If buyers hold 5988 (open pivot), the rally could extend toward:
6015 (minor resistance)
6050 (untested level, major resistance)
🔻 Downside Risks – Where Sellers Regain Control
🔸 Weakness Below 5975
If price stalls or shows rejection below 5975, watch for a possible reversal.
Critical Support Zones:
5960-5965 – First support for buyers to defend.
5935-5950 – Key battle zone. If this gives way, look for deeper downside.
5823 – Last week’s extreme low. If tested again, it could signal another wave of selling pressure.
📚 Market Education – The "One-Off Sell-Off" Phenomenon
A "one-off sell-off" is when a sharp downward move is followed by a quick recovery, often with little follow-through to the downside. These are typically driven by:
1️⃣ News-driven events that cause temporary panic but lack sustained bearish momentum.
2️⃣ Liquidation flushes, where forced selling leads to sharp declines that get absorbed quickly by stronger hands.
3️⃣ Bear traps, where aggressive sellers chase breakdowns but are then caught when price reverses higher.
The key to identifying a one-off sell-off? Watching the gaps.
A gap up that holds suggests buyers are in control.
A gap that fails and price closes below key levels (like 5975 today) signals further downside risk.
📌 Trading Plan & Setups for Today
📍 Scenario 1: The Bullish Case
If price holds above 5975 and consolidates, watch for long setups targeting 6050.
Confirmation: Higher lows forming above support levels.
Entry: On a pullback to 5988 or a break & hold above 6015.
Stop Loss: Below 5960.
Targets: 6015 → 6050
📍 Scenario 2: The Bearish Case
If price rejects 6015-6050 or fails to hold 5975, downside pressure can return.
Confirmation: Failed breakout attempts or weakness below key pivots.
Entry: On a rejection at resistance or break below 5960.
Stop Loss: Above 6015.
Targets: 5935 → 5895
📍 Scenario 3: The Chop & Fakeout Case
If price hovers between 5975-6015 without clear direction, be cautious.
Today could be range-bound before a bigger move later in the week.
⚡ Final Thoughts
Key level for today: 5975—above is bullish, below invites selling.
Market still in recovery mode, but another liquidation event could emerge if weakness appears.
Bear traps likely first, but be prepared for true weakness if price starts selling off aggressively.
Targets: Watch 6050 for upside, 5935 for downside if things roll over.
Stay nimble, trust the levels, and let price dictate the next move.
💡 Trade smart & stay disciplined!