Morning Market Update for Subscribers
More Downside Pressure? Key Levels to Watch
📢 Morning Market Update for Subscribers
📉 More Downside Pressure? Key Levels to Watch
🔍 Market Overview: Failed Overnight Rally Signals Weakness
After an attempt to rally overnight, prices failed to hold gains and traded back toward the lows. This signals continued bearish momentum as the market struggles to find committed buyers.
Now, we are at a critical juncture:
❗ Does the market break below 5700 ($ES) and 20,000 ($NQ), or can buyers step in?
If sellers remain in control, expect a test of 19909 ($NQ) and 5705 ($ES) as the next downside objectives. If buyers attempt a reversal, they must reclaim key resistance levels before we can consider any shift in sentiment.
📊 Open Pivots & Market Structure
🔹 $ES Open Pivot: 5740
🔹 $NQ Open Pivot: 20082
These pivots act as intraday balance points—if price remains below them, it favors continued selling into key downside targets. If reclaimed, expect an attempt at short-term recovery.
📌 Key Levels to Watch Today
📉 Downside Targets – Bears Pressing for New Lows?
🔻 5705 ($ES) – First Major Support Test
If broken, expect sellers to accelerate toward 5685 and lower.
Momentum could increase below 5700, triggering stop-loss liquidations.
🔻 19909 ($NQ) – First Major Support Test
If sellers hold price below 19,971, expect a breakdown to 19909.
Below 19909, next major level is 19800.
📈 Reclaim Levels – Can Buyers Stabilize?
🔹 5784 ($ES) – First Resistance Test
Sellers will likely stay active here.
If price struggles above 5784, it signals that selling pressure is not done.
🔹 5807 ($ES) – Key Reversal Level
Must be reclaimed to shift sentiment.
If buyers can sustain above 5807, we could see an attempt to push toward 5860s.
🔹 20212 ($NQ) – Key Reversal Level
If price stays below, expect a continued bearish tone.
Reclaiming this level opens the door for a test of 20300-20400.
📚 Market Education: Understanding Failed Rallies & Seller Strength
📌 What does a failed rally tell us?
A failed rally often signals that buyers lack conviction or that sellers are aggressively defending key resistance.
The faster the rejection, the stronger the downside momentum.
📌 How to spot seller control?
Hovering just above support: If price keeps testing a support level without bouncing, it often means sellers are absorbing demand before pushing price lower.
Sharp rejections at resistance: If price spikes up but quickly falls back, it signals that buyers are weak and sellers are in control.
🔎 Trading tip: If price struggles to reclaim resistance zones (e.g., 5784-5807 on $ES), it’s a sign that sellers are still dominant.
🔎 Trading Plan & Scenarios for Today
📍 Scenario 1: Breakdown Below 5705 ($ES) / 19909 ($NQ) – Bearish Setup
If price stays below open pivots (5740 / 20082), sellers remain in control.
Targets: 5705 → 5685 ($ES) & 19909 → 19800 ($NQ).
📍 Scenario 2: Relief Rally to 5784 ($ES) / 20212 ($NQ) – Bullish Setup
If price reclaims 5784 / 20212, expect upside continuation.
Targets: 5807 ($ES) & 20375 ($NQ).
📍 Scenario 3: Choppy Range Day – No Clear Trend
If price remains between 5705-5784 ($ES) or 19900-20200 ($NQ), expect slow, indecisive trading.
📌 Final Thoughts – Another Push Lower?
✔ Overnight rally failed—sellers still in control.
✔ Key downside break points: 5705 ($ES) and 19909 ($NQ).
✔ Buyers MUST reclaim 5784 / 20212 to prevent further downside.
🔎 If sellers push price below 5700 / 19900 today, expect increased volatility into the close. If buyers reclaim key levels, we could see a short-term relief rally.
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