Morning Market Update for Subscribers
Thursday’s Market Setup
📢 Morning Market Update for Subscribers
📅 Thursday’s Market Setup: Trend Reversal or More Downside?
🔍 Market Overview: Pattern Playing Out as Expected
We've been spot on in predicting the recent market movements:
✔ The dip into key support zones.
✔ The double bottom reversal and rally attempt.
✔ The breakout, which gave bulls hope.
✔ And finally, the fade—bringing us back to retest key levels.
Now, the last piece of our forecast remains:
❗ Will the bottom break, or will we get a trend reversal?
📊 Open Pivots & Market Structure
🔸 $ES Open Pivot: 5788
🔸 $NQ Open Pivot: 20335
Thursday is historically known for trend reversals. The market has been trending down, meaning the higher-probability setup today is a reversal back up.
But buyers have to show up. The market can’t rally without demand, and until we see that, the risk of breaking lower remains.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
📈 Upside Potential – What Bulls Need to See
🔹 5807 ($ES) – Key Breakout Trigger
This is the line in the sand for buyers.
Above this level: Momentum can shift back to bulls.
Target: 5861 → 5900+ if breakout is confirmed.
🔹 20375-20450 ($NQ) – First Resistance Zone
Above here, we look for a push toward 20600-20757.
If buyers sustain control, a bigger squeeze can develop.
📉 Downside Risks – Where Sellers Take Control
🔻 5765 ($ES) – Breakdown Trigger
A failure here could send prices sharply lower.
Watch for aggressive selling if it breaks.
🔻 20100 ($NQ) – Key Support
A break below could open the door for another wave of selling.
Next major downside targets: 19850-19900.
📚 Market Education: The Importance of the Daily Close
Why is 5784 so critical today?
The closing price is often a foreshadowing of the next move.
If we close above 5784, buyers regain short-term control, increasing the chances of a rally into Friday.
A close below 5784 suggests further downside and a likely retest of 5765 or lower.
🚨 How to Use the Daily Close in Your Trading Plan:
1️⃣ If price closes strong above key levels, look for follow-through the next day.
2️⃣ If price closes weak near the lows, expect more downside.
3️⃣ If price closes in the middle of the range, expect more chop and indecision.
🔎 Trading Plan & Scenarios for Today
📍 Scenario 1: Trend Reversal (Bullish Setup)
If price holds above 5784 and breaks 5807, look for upside continuation.
Targets: 5861, then 5900+.
📍 Scenario 2: Breakdown & Continuation Lower (Bearish Setup)
If 5765 fails, expect another flush down.
Targets: 5720 → 5700.
📍 Scenario 3: Choppy Session – No Clear Direction
If price remains trapped between 5765-5807, expect consolidation.
Wait for a decisive break before committing to a directional trade.
📌 Final Thoughts – The Close Will Tell the Story
✔ Key Resistance: 5807 ($ES) & 20375 ($NQ) – A breakout above can spark short-covering.
✔ Key Support: 5765 ($ES) & 20100 ($NQ) – A break below opens the door for new lows.
✔ Daily Close Above 5784 = Bullish Bias, Below 5784 = Bearish Bias.
🔎 Today is a potential reversal day—but only if buyers step up. Watch key levels closely and trade with discipline.
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