Morning Update for Subscribers
Holding the High Ground – Is the Rally Ready for Another Leg Up?
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
⚡ Holding the High Ground – Is the Rally Ready for Another Leg Up?
🧭 Open Pivots (Sept Contracts):
$ES: 6155
$NQ: 22494
📈 Overnight Recap – Strength Continues, Momentum Builds
The overnight session extended yesterday’s strength:
$NQ led the charge again, tagging the 22500 zone and exceeding the 22480 upside target
$ES followed but has yet to clear 6162, stalling just under 6157
📊 This shows NQ remains the leader in bullish behavior, while $ES is trailing slightly but still holding strong.
The trend continues to be buy-the-dip with each correction finding support and producing higher highs.
🧠 Auction Market Theory Insight – Initiative at Value Highs
Price is attempting to build value higher. The overnight continuation followed an initiative rally that began yesterday from strong demand zones (6105 / 22240).
This isn't just a momentum push — it's a potential value migration upward, which is a sign of stronger conviction buying.
But here’s the key:
🧭 Holding breakout levels is everything today.
If buyers lose grip on 6147 / 22460, we risk a reversal or pullback phase.
🎯 Key Breakout + Bias Levels
Buyers’ Breakout Hold Zones:
$ES: 6147 (breakout) → must hold to sustain upward bias
$NQ: 22460 → current structure hinge for continuation
Bias-Defining Levels (Line in Sand):
$ES: 6138
$NQ: 22405
→ These are the intraday battlegrounds. If price holds above, buyers have the edge.
Upside Targets:
$ES: 6162 → breakout follow-through
$NQ: 22550 → swing target above 22500
Stretch: $ES 6186 / $NQ 22730
Downside Risk Zones (if breakout fails):
$ES: 6070 (balance support)
$NQ: 22130 (volume shelf + last breakout base)
→ A failure at today’s open pivots or bias levels may trigger a return to these areas
📌 Contextual Education – Why Open Pivots Matter
Open Pivots are the equilibrium point where buyers and sellers start the day with clean books. Holding above = bullish bias, breaking below = watch for shift in sentiment.
Today’s open pivots are:
Well above yesterday’s range midpoints
Reinforcing the gap-and-hold structure from the week’s start
A potential staging area for trend continuation, or the beginning of buyer exhaustion
📚 Pro Tip: If price trades above the Open Pivot and holds above breakout zones, it's a high probability continuation setup.
🧠 Scenario Planning – What Could Today Look Like?
Scenario 1 – Trend Continuation
Price holds above 6147 / 22460
$ES tags 6162 and extends toward 6186
$NQ holds 22494 → pushes toward 22550 and possibly 22700
Confirmation: shallow pullbacks, strong bar closes, high volume breakouts
Scenario 2 – Failed Breakout → Retrace to Balance
Price loses 6147 / 22460 early
Drops into 6138 / 22405 bias zones
If no buyer defense → slide toward 6070 / 22130
Confirmation: wide range candles, failed retests, low delta support
Scenario 3 – Choppy Balance Day
Market rotates inside yesterday’s range
No commitment above or below breakout levels
Patience required — breakout traders may get chopped
Watch 30m structure → balance high/low defines opportunity
🎙️ Final Word – Trend or Trap?
The market is sitting at the highs with strong follow-through from earlier breakout zones.
But here's what matters:
🧠 Breakout levels must hold to signal strength
❗ Bias levels must be defended to prevent reversal
🔑 Close above 6162 / 22550 turns this into a full-fledged continuation rally
If buyers fail here — especially into tomorrow's session — it could mark the beginning of a broader digestion phase.
So stay sharp, stay patient, and let the structure confirm your trades.
Let structure guide you.
Let price confirm you.
And let conviction follow preparation.