Morning Update for Subscribers
Sliding Overnight Bulls Need to Defend
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
Sliding Overnight — Bulls Need to Defend
📊 Open Pivots:
ES: 6425
NQ: 23418
🧠Market Overview
Overnight, prices slid lower across the board, with both ES and NQ making new lows. NQ dropped significantly more than ES, reaching 23330s, while ES bottomed out at 6409. These moves suggest a heavy downside initiative.
The key level to watch today is yesterday’s RTH low — if bulls fail to support this level, it could confirm that the daily trend is turning down. The 6415 ES and 23370 NQ levels serve as today’s rug pull zones. If these levels fail to hold, we could see a deeper sell-off with a potential for a big leg down.
However, if the market can hold the lows and reclaim 6440 ES and 23460 NQ, we could see a retracement of the 500pt pullback from NQ and a rally back to 6500 ES.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Structural Context & Market Intent
We’ve seen a classic liquidation move, especially with NQ leading the downside. From an AMT perspective, when prices make new lows but fail to maintain momentum, it can signal exhaustion. The market is testing the strength of buyers defending at key support—if they fail, sellers gain the initiative for further downside.
The RTH low from yesterday is critical. If it holds, the market is absorbing sell pressure and could make a move back toward balance. If it doesn’t, we’re likely to see a continued downside auction into deeper value.
🎯 Key Levels to Monitor
ES:
Support / Rug Pull Zone: 6415
Squeeze Trigger: 6440
Upward Target if Squeeze Holds: 6500
NQ:
Support / Rug Pull Zone: 23370
Squeeze Trigger: 23460
Upward Target if Squeeze Holds: Retrace toward 23800s
🧠Scenario Branches
Downside Continuation
Trigger: Failure to hold 6415 ES / 23370 NQ
Target: ES 6400, NQ 23200s
Invalidation: Reclaim of 6440 ES / 23460 NQ
Confirmation: Strong rejection below key levels, volume expansion
Squeeze & Reversal Up
Trigger: Hold above 6415 ES / 23370 NQ and reclaim 6440 ES / 23460 NQ
Target: ES 6500, NQ 23800s
Invalidation: Failure to hold above squeeze levels, quick reversal below
Balance Hold
Trigger: Rotation between 6415–6440 ES and 23370–23460 NQ
Target: Neutral close, prepare for breakout tomorrow
Invalidation: Clean break above or below range
🔚 Final Execution Cue
The market is in a battle for control. If 6415 ES and 23370 NQ hold, the bulls can find a base to rally from. If they fail, it’s time for sellers to extend the downside. Patience is key today—wait for the structure to confirm before acting on any breakout or breakdown.
Key levels define the trend. Watch them closely for the next move.
