Morning Update for Subscribers

Full Retrace in ES, Now Testing for Breakout Control

📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Full Retrace in ES, Now Testing for Breakout Control
📊 Open Pivots:
ES: 5895
NQ: 21286

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🧭 Market Overview – Back to the Scene of the Crime
ES has fully retraced the rug pull that began from 5894, which ultimately led us to that clean flush into the 5750s. Now, price is back above that level, knocking on the door of a potential breakout and control shift.

Meanwhile, NQ has also recovered from a sharp overnight dip and is testing the 21300 level—a key threshold for whether this rally has legs or fizzles into a fade.

This is where intent meets test:
❓ What is the market attempting to do?
✅ Attempt: Squeeze out overhead supply and reclaim value above 5894 / 21300.
❓ Is it succeeding? Not yet—but we’re right at the proving ground.

If ES can hold 5m and 30m bar closes above 5894, bulls are showing they’re in control.
If bears defend and force closes back under 5884, especially below 5869 → short-term downside re-engages.

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📌 Key Control Zones and Targets

🔼 Upside Breakout Path

• ES: 5894 → 5903 → 5935 → 5975

• NQ: 21300 → 21405 → 21530

📉 Downside Control Zones

• ES: 5884 → 5869 → 5841 → 5817

• NQ: 21200 → 21060 → 20800

📍 Bias Levels to Watch

• Long Bias Valid Above:

  • ES: 5894

  • NQ: 21300

• Short Bias Valid Below:

  • ES: 5884

  • NQ: 21200

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🎯 Entry Triggers

📈 Long Setup

• Trigger: 5m or 30m bar closes above 5894 / 21300

• Target: ES → 5903 → 5935
  NQ → 21405 → 21530

• Stop: Under 5884 / 21260

📌 Tip: Wait for confirmation, don’t front-run the squeeze. Volume and bar structure matter.

📉 Short Setup

• Trigger: Rejection at 5894–5903 zone with bar closes back under 5884 and loss of 5869

• Target: ES → 5841 → 5817
  NQ → 21060 → 20800

• Stop: Above 5903 / 21360

📌 Tip: Shorting should be tactical—only on failed breakout confirmation.

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📚 Educational Insight – Watch the Alignment Between Attempt and Outcome
Markets don’t move based on what they “should” do. They move based on whether their attempt is being accepted.

When price attempts higher but is absorbed and rejected, sellers still control.
When price attempts higher and builds value above resistance, it's supply being removed—and that’s your cue to lean long.

Today is a test of that exact structure. 5894 is the battle line, and the market’s job is to prove who controls it.

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🔚 Final Thoughts – Don’t Predict the Outcome. Judge the Reaction.

• Closes above 5894 / 21300 → Market is succeeding in its upside attempt

• Rejections under 5884 / 21200 → Bears still defending

Today isn’t about bias. It’s about observation and execution.

Let price tell the truth. Let your edge execute the response.

#MorningUpdate #ES #NQ #FuturesTrading #AuctionMarketTheory #BreakoutControl #PriceAction