📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
Overnight Highs in ES NQ Lagging
📊 Open Pivots:
ES: 6496
NQ: 23903
🧠Market Overview
Overnight, ES printed a new all-time high at 6508, while NQ stalled at its pivot and stayed pinned at 23903. This creates a split tape: ES showing leadership and initiative, NQ holding back. When highs are made in the overnight session, the default tendency is for price to dip during the day — the key question is whether buyers defend those pullbacks or let the market rotate lower.
If the regular session fails to break the overnight highs, that’s often a cue for a sell-off toward yesterday’s value. If the market holds higher lows and pushes back toward those highs with strength, we could see continuation toward the upside targets we’ve been tracking.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Structural Context & Market Intent
We’re opening in price discovery mode for ES, but not yet for NQ. This asymmetry can cause choppy intraday behavior as one index tests initiative buying while the other stays balanced.
From an AMT lens:
ES is in vertical development above prior value — the auction will probe until strong sellers show up.
NQ is still rotating inside value, testing whether buyers have enough conviction to pull it into sync with ES.
If ES can’t hold breakout levels and NQ can’t follow through, the structure can shift quickly into responsive selling back toward composite balance.
🎯 Key Levels
ES:
Upside: 6508 → 6518 → 6534 stretch
Support: 6484 → 6469 → 6440 deeper
Failure Signal: Hold below 6484 after early rally attempt
NQ:
Upside: 23960 → 24070 → 24149 stretch
Support: 23840 → 23757
Failure Signal: Break and hold below 23840
🧠Scenario Branches
Continuation Higher
Trigger: ES holds 6484+ and NQ reclaims 23960
Target: New highs in both indices; ES 6518+, NQ 24070
Invalidation: Early rejection of overnight highs
Dip & Defend
Trigger: Pullback toward 6469 ES / 23840 NQ finds strong responsive buying
Target: Retest overnight highs, potential squeeze
Sell-Off Toward Balance
Trigger: Fail to retake highs and lose 6484 ES / 23840 NQ early
Target: ES 6440, NQ 23757, with deeper downside if momentum builds
🔚 Final Execution Cue
Same map as yesterday — 6502 and 6518 are upside magnets if ES can hold above breakout shelves. 23960 is NQ’s pivot for joining the upside. If highs hold only in the overnight and regular session can’t confirm, expect responsive selling back toward composite balance.
Overnight highs test buyers — regular session confirms or rejects them.