Morning Update for Subscribers
CPI Print Lands Soft, Markets Drift Higher
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers — CPI Print Lands Soft, Markets Drift Higher
🔹 Open Pivots:
$ES: 5865
$NQ: 20,990
The CPI data came in slightly cooler than expected — not a major beat, but just enough to keep the inflation narrative in check. This helps bonds and risk assets for now, but there's an important nuance: if disinflation is being driven by weak consumer spending or tight bank lending, then the market might soon reassess the "good news."
We're still in a holding pattern near the 5829–5877 zone on $ES. Price continues to climb steadily, but not without signs of hesitation. The bias remains bullish, but we’re approaching critical resistance levels.
📊 Key Levels & Trading Zones
Upside Targets:
$ES: 5901 → 5930 → 5965
$NQ: 21,300 → 21,550
Downside Support Zones:
$ES: 5853 → 5829 → 5783
$NQ: 20,500 → 20,260
5829 remains a major control zone—any close below it can shift short-term sentiment back to neutral or bearish.
🔍 Auction Theory Context – Interpreting This Market Behavior
Auction Market Theory (AMT) teaches us to focus on context before conviction. With CPI behind us and a lack of major headline risk today, we ask:
Who is driving price?
Are buyers absorbing sell attempts?
Is the auction one-sided, or balanced within a defined value range?
In this case, we’re seeing balance. The market has found temporary agreement on value between 5829–5877, and it's probing the upper end.
A breakout toward 5901 and 5930 may confirm buyers are winning. A rejection here would tell us this is still part of the distribution phase.
📚 Trading Education – The Risk Behind “Good CPI”
CPI prints like this can be deceiving. On the surface, lower inflation is bullish—but if it's caused by declining consumption or tighter credit conditions, the market may soon reprice growth expectations downward.
Watch the bond market for clues:
If yields fall and tech rises, risk-on continues.
If yields rise alongside stocks, something is breaking.
As traders, our job is to interpret—not just react. Use Auction Theory to frame every move in context.
🛠 Trade Scenarios
Scenario 1: Breakout Holds
If $ES reclaims 5877 and holds, look for quick extension to 5901 and possibly 5930.
$NQ above 21,000 opens the door to 21,300+.
Scenario 2: Pop and Drop
If price fails at 5877 or NQ rejects 21,000 again, expect a retrace to 5853 or lower.
A sustained break under 5829 shifts bias bearish.
Scenario 3: Inside Day Grind
CPI already out, so the market could balance all day between 5829–5877.
In this case, look for scalps or mean reversion trades.
🧠 Final Thought – Be Ready for Shift
The market is trading up, but the internals feel stretched. CPI bought bulls some time, but don’t assume this rally has unlimited legs.
If 5829 breaks on the close, sellers could step back in force tomorrow.
Stay nimble, manage risk, and keep context before conviction.
#ES_F #NQ_F #MarketUpdate #AuctionMarketTheory