Morning Update for Subscribers
Buyers Still in Control – The Multi-Month Breakout in Motion?
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
🚀 Buyers Still in Control – The Multi-Month Breakout in Motion?
📊 Open Pivots:
$ES: 6166
$NQ: 22561
🧭 Market Overview – Momentum Renewed
The overnight session delivered another sharp rally. Bulls are not just holding — they’re building.
Yesterday’s critical holds at 22405 and 6138 told us the rally wasn’t done. That signal carried into Globex, where buyers stepped in early and never looked back.
Now we open with continuation strength, pushing $NQ into the 22600s and $ES into 6170+, firmly above the breakout zones.
The bullish script remains intact unless sellers can reclaim key broken zones from yesterday. Until then, the path of least resistance remains up.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Momentum vs Acceptance
We’re not just trading higher — we’re beginning to see signs of potential value migration.
Holding above previous resistance (now support) means the market is accepting higher prices. If that continues, we’re no longer in a fade environment — we’re in a multi-month leg-up formation.
Here’s the breakdown:
Sellers failed to defend 22405 / 6138
Buyers now have initiative AND control
Bears must invalidate this early today or risk being steamrolled
Breakouts don’t always start with drama — but they often continue with quiet control and higher lows
🎯 Key Squeeze & Breakout Levels
$ES:
Squeeze Defense: 6153
Bias Defense: 6138
Breakout Confirmation: Hold above 6173 → Targets: 6186 → 6197
Downside Targets (if sellers regain control): 6153 → 6138 → 6125
$NQ:
Breakout Zone: 22460
Bias Defense: 22405
Targets: 22666 → 22730 → 22800s
Downside Risk: Failure to hold 22405 → Opens door to 22130 retest
📖 Educational Cue – Structure Over Emotion
When a breakout holds its gains and dips are aggressively bought, that’s a sign of real conviction. Not short squeezes. Not fakeouts.
Real breakouts don’t rush — they grind, hold levels, and trap sellers trying to fade “overbought” signals.
That’s what we’re seeing now.
Key lessons for today:
A breakout that holds = new range forming at higher prices
A failure to follow through = distribution trap
Don't countertrend until the bias levels are broken and held below
🧠 Scenario Branches
Continuation Rally
✅ Trigger: $ES holds above 6173 / $NQ above 22460
🎯 Targets: $ES → 6186 → 6197 / $NQ → 22730 → 22800
❌ Invalidation: Drop below 6153 and lose 22405 with conviction
False Break & Fade
🧨 Trigger: $ES breaks 6138 / $NQ loses 22405 early in RTH
🎯 Targets: $ES → 6125 / $NQ → 22130
✅ Confirmation: 15–30 min bar closes below bias with no buyer defense
Chop & Grind (Coiling for Later)
🔄 Trigger: Market holds 6153–6173 and 22460–22600
🎯 Outcome: Compression, then expansion on Wednesday or FOMC-like release
🚨 Watch: Compression = Trap setup if it breaks without volume
🔚 Final Execution Cue – Control the Narrative or Be Controlled
Buyers still have the pen — and they’re writing higher prices.
If sellers don’t rewrite the story by reclaiming 22405 and 6138 early today, then this rally has legs that can carry through to new 30–60 day highs.
Let the market confirm your bias — and be ready for a change in tempo at any moment.
📌 Stay flexible.
📌 Trade what you see, not what you think.
📌 Use the power pivots to track who's in control.