Morning Update for Subscribers
We are not in the clear, just yet
📈 Morning Update for Subscribers
🔍 Breakout from the Downtrend – A Bullish Shift or Just a Bounce?
📊 Market Overview & Open Pivots
After an extended period of selling pressure, the market has finally staged a meaningful recovery off the recent lows. This rally is breaking the near-term downtrend line, which is an important shift in market structure. Don’t short downtrend breakouts.
📌 Open Pivots:
🔸 $ES: 5632
🔸 $NQ: 19632
For the first time in weeks, the market is showing bullish structure in the short term. However, we are not in the clear just yet—prices are approaching key resistance zones, and buyers need to hold above critical levels to maintain momentum.
🔑 Key Levels & Trading Plan
🚀 Upside Scenarios – Can Bulls Maintain Control?
✅ Key Resistance Levels to Watch:
$ES 5651 & $NQ 19757 → First Major Test
$ES 5674-5688 & $NQ 19870s → Critical Resistance
How to Trade It:
If price rejects these zones, sellers will look to re-enter.
Break above these levels can trigger another leg higher.
🔹 If bulls hold above 5632 (ES) and 19632 (NQ), the next upside targets are:
$ES → 5718-5740 zone
$NQ → 20000+ retest
🔻 Downside Scenarios – A Bull Trap?
🚨 Key Reversal Triggers:
If the uptrend line breaks, the move higher could be just a short squeeze, and sellers will likely regain control.
Watching 5620s (ES) and 19580s (NQ) for early signs of reversal.
📍 Key Supports Below:
$ES 5570s & $NQ 19250 → Major downside targets if momentum flips bearish again.
How to Trade It:
If the trendline breaks, look for short entries on weak bounces.
Be patient—don’t short while price is still making higher highs and higher lows.
📚 Market Education: How to Trade a Trend Breakout
🔍 Recognizing a True Trend Reversal vs. a Short Squeeze
It’s important to differentiate between a trend shift and a temporary squeeze. Here’s what to watch for:
📌 1. Holding Above Previous Resistance
A true trend reversal happens when old resistance levels become new support after a breakout.
For example: If ES breaks 5651 and holds above it, it signals bullish control.
📌 2. Strength in Pullbacks
Healthy uptrends have controlled pullbacks that don’t erase the entire rally.
If pullbacks hold above 5620s (ES) & 19580s (NQ), it’s a sign of buyer strength.
📌 3. Momentum Fading at Resistance
If price struggles at 5674-88 (ES) or 19870s (NQ), it suggests a possible fakeout.
If higher prices get rejected quickly, the market may roll back over.
📌 Final Thoughts – What to Watch Today
✔ Bulls have control in the near term, but they MUST hold above key support levels to sustain momentum.
✔ Breaking the uptrend line can send us back to 5570s & 19250.
✔ Big resistance ahead at 5651-5674 (ES) and 19757-19870 (NQ).
✔ Trade the trend until it breaks—don’t short an uptrend!
🔎 Stay disciplined, follow the levels, and let price action lead the way!
#SubscriberUpdate #MarketAnalysis #TrendBreakout