Morning Update for Subscribers
Decision Day After the Squeeze
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Decision Day After the Squeeze
📊 Open Pivots
$ES: 5885
$NQ: 21280
📌 Overview – Markets Pause After Explosive Rally
After an impressive multi-day upside squeeze, momentum has finally paused. Price action overnight and into this morning suggests we’ve reached a decision point. The market has extended far, fast—and now traders must determine: Is this a pause before another leg up? Or the start of a deeper pullback?
We’re opening into key structural test zones, with battle lines drawn at the following thresholds:
$ES: 5875
$NQ: 21270s
🔍 Key Levels to Watch
🔼 Upside Levels
$ES 5901 → Major pivot from prior session highs. Reclaiming this would trigger another round of forced buying.
$NQ 21300 → Line in the sand for bulls. Clears the path toward the 21405 target.
$ES 5915 → Open squeeze extension zone, often tested in continuation moves.
$NQ 21405 → Squeeze exhaustion target from earlier in the week.
🔻 Downside Levels
$ES 5875 → Today’s structural support. If buyers hold this, momentum may resume upward.
$NQ 21270s → Equivalent structural zone for Nasdaq.
$NQ 21130 → Initial breakdown target; held on Wednesday and triggered bounces.
$ES 5840 → Broad support region; below this lies thin air and high risk of cascade lower.
📍 Closing Level to Watch Closely
$ES 5895–5901 → Daily close within or above this zone keeps buyers in control. A close below shifts sentiment and opens the door for more liquidation into tomorrow.
⚔️ Trading Scenarios to Prepare For
📍 Scenario 1: Hold Above 5875 / 21270s → Upside Continuation
Buyers step in early and defend the initial pullback.
Price holds above the pivot zones, forms higher lows, and begins to grind upward.
A break and hold above 5901 / 21300 would likely re-ignite the squeeze → 21405 / 5915.
Trade Plan: Long bias above the support zones, but require confirmation (e.g., 15m higher low, reclaim of prior breakdown candle, strong volume response).
📍 Scenario 2: Break Below Support → Short-Term Reversal
Price fails to hold 5875 / 21270 and pushes lower toward 5840 / 21130.
Weak bounce attempts are faded, and rallies are sold.
Trade Plan: Look for aggressive rejection at broken support on retest. Favor shorts below key pivots—especially if breakdowns happen with volume and speed.
📍 Scenario 3: Chop Zone
Price consolidates between 5875 and 5901 ($ES) or 21270–21300 ($NQ), with no decisive move.
The market waits for additional data or news to make the next directional play.
Trade Plan: Treat this like a balance day—favors scalping, but not trend trades. Stay patient. Wait for breakout or breakdown with conviction.
📚 Auction Theory Insight – “Who’s in Control?”
At its core, Auction Market Theory (AMT) is about identifying who’s willing to transact at certain prices—and whether they’re getting rewarded or trapped.
Today, 5875 and 21270s are the “battlefield zones”:
If buyers absorb sellers and push higher → it signals strong demand.
If price rejects and breaks down → it shows buyers are exhausted and sellers are gaining initiative.
Think in terms of price acceptance:
Price staying above a level = market is accepting those higher prices = bullish.
Price rejecting and failing to hold = market doesn’t value those prices = bearish.
Today, we’re watching for confirmation of which camp is in control:
Do buyers defend the recent gains (acceptance)?
Or do sellers take advantage of exhaustion (rejection)?
💡 Final Thoughts – Decision Day
🧠 We’re entering a probability edge zone, not a prediction zone. Let the market reveal its hand.
Above 5901 / 21300 → Squeeze still alive
Below 5875 / 21270s → The unwind begins
Chop between = caution zone
⚠️ Be selective. React to what price confirms, not what you hope happens.
📌 As always: Don’t predict. Prepare.