Morning Update for Subscribers
- Is the Taco Trade Still Alive?
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
🕰️ Open Pivots:
$ES: 5898
$NQ: 21330
Prices flushed like we wanted overnight — exactly in line with our expectations. The move was led by NQ, which closed bearish yesterday. ES wasn’t exactly bearish — just “less bullish” — but followed suit after the overnight test and rejection at key levels.
🧨 5915 and 21405 were the key test zones.
Buyers tried to push above.
Rejected.
Straight down after that failed attempt.
Now we shift focus to one of the most important questions today:
🔍 Can sellers hold the open below 5895?
If yes → continuation lower.
If no → likely squeeze back up to overnight highs.
📌 Key Zones to Watch:
🧱 Support Zones:
$ES: 5870s is critical. Get below that and… well, I’m not sure if there’s a taco big enough to save what’s coming.
$NQ: 21270–21330 is where the battle is happening now.
🎯 Resistance Zones:
$ES: 5909–5917 → If reclaimed, the bear trap springs shut.
$NQ: 21405 → Overhead pressure.
ES loves to fake out bears overnight. Dip into the 70s. Reverse. Trap. Rip.
So stay nimble if short. The trap risk is real.
🧠 Market Logic and Education
When sellers want to sell, they don’t hesitate. They hit the bids.
If they’re not doing that? Someone is buying — and they’re absorbing that supply.
🧭 What is the market trying to do?
🧠 And is it succeeding?
Right now, it’s attempting to press lower, retest key flush zones, and hold initiative from yesterday’s rejection.
But watch for signs of failure — especially if the reclaim zones flip.
🌮 Trade Humor & Context: The TACO Trade
There's a new phrase being thrown around on the Street:
TACO — “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
The phrase was coined after repeated patterns where Trump announces something explosively market-moving (like tariffs), only to walk it back under pressure. The latest? Trump slapping a 50% tariff on the EU and attacking Apple, only to get blocked by federal trade courts.
What happened?
Rally.
Markets loved it. Tariffs “effectively canceled.”
$NQ rallied 300pts and $ES tagged 6004.
But here’s the deeper lesson:
Every time headlines drop — the chart is already whispering it.
Price action is king. Headlines just justify it after the fact.
So yes — that “TACO” meme might just become a macro strategy.
Stay sharp. Today’s session is a key test of trend structure.
Either the reclaim happens and bears get trapped — or the flush continues and the next leg down confirms.
We’re ready for either.