Morning Update for Subscribers
Gap Down Sets the Tone to Start the Week
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Gap Down Sets the Tone to Start the Week
📊 Open Pivots:
$ES: 5252
$NQ: 18118
📌 Overview – Bearish Start After Technical Breakdown
Markets opened the week with a large gap down, reinforcing the bearish tone we’ve been tracking. The critical breakdown level at 5292 ($ES) played out perfectly—once broken, price flushed to our 5240 target where some short-covering support appeared.
The tone remains bearish as long as we’re below key reclaim zones. Expect more pop and drop setups as trapped longs get squeezed and sellers re-engage at resistance.
📉 Bias & Sentiment Zones
🔻 Bearish Bias While Below:
$ES: 5284 → 5269
$NQ: 18130 → 18300
These are your "lean short" zones. Any push into these levels without strong reclaim opens up fade opportunities.
🧠 Key Sentiment Gauge:
$NQ 18130 acts as a real-time indicator for market tone.
Below = Weak structure, seller control.
Above = Neutral to bullish, but must build strength.
📌 Key Levels for the Session
🔹 Resistance to Watch:
$ES: 5284 → 5300
$NQ: 18300 → 18400
Expect sellers to defend these zones aggressively.
Failed breakouts = short setups.
🔻 Support Levels Below:
$ES: 5220 → 5184
$NQ: 17950 → 17800
Clean flushes below 5220 open up deeper liquidation plays.
Structure will shift into high-momentum trend mode if sellers can hold pressure under these zones.
📌 Trade Setup Scenarios
📍 Scenario A: Pop & Drop (Fade Rally)
Price reclaims 5284 / 18300 temporarily → stalls → reverses.
Enter short on rejection candles (e.g. 15m or 5m reversal structure).
Target: 5220 / 17950
Stop: Above 5300 / 18400
📍 Scenario B: Breakdown & Continuation
Price consolidates under 5252 and breaks 5220 decisively.
Ride the momentum lower.
Target: 5184 / 17800
Use trailing stops to manage open profit.
📚 Educational Insight – How to Trade Monday Gaps
Gaps on Monday are often continuation signals, especially when aligned with:
Failed reclaims of Friday support.
Structure already leaning heavy.
Don’t chase the gap. Wait for:
Failed retest of the breakdown level (e.g. 5292).
Breakdown of intraday support (e.g. 5220).
Confirmation through price action, not emotion.
These setups often provide the cleanest risk-to-reward of the week—but only if you stay disciplined.
🔥 Final Thoughts
Below 5269 = sellers maintain control.
Look for traps above 5300 / 18300 to build short exposure.
5220 is today’s inflection point—a break confirms more downside to come.
Stay sharp, keep size appropriate, and let price prove itself.