Morning Update for Subscribers
FOMC Setup — Calm Before the Whipsaw
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
FOMC Setup — Calm Before the Whipsaw
📊 Open Pivots:
$ES: 6045
$NQ: 22000
🧭 Market Overview
We’re opening with slightly lower prices than yesterday’s close, but the structure remains intact.
The overnight dip in Globex was bought again — a familiar pattern.
However, we’re now back beneath our short trigger zones from yesterday:
🔻 $ES: 6062
🔻 $NQ: 22055–22065
Those zones gave us excellent short setups yesterday, and they still define the key battle lines heading into FOMC day.
Today’s session will likely play out in three stages:
Pre-FOMC Jitter (now – early afternoon): choppy, cautious, two-sided action
FOMC Reaction (Fed statement & Powell): violent first move
FOMC Reversal / Resolution: the real trend emerges
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Wrong Move First
FOMC days often produce liquidity-driven false moves:
The initial reaction is not the one that sticks.
That first move can go big, but often traps traders leaning too hard.
The real move usually comes after the dust settles and the auction rebalances.
Think in phases, not single reactions.
This is when understanding who is in control — and when they lose control — becomes everything.
🎯 Key Levels
$ES:
🔹 Resistance: 6062 → 6080
🔹 Support: 6023 → 6005
🔹 Breakout Trigger: Above 6062 = potential FOMC squeeze
🔹 Breakdown Trigger: Below 6023 = possible trend day lower
🔹 Trend Continuation Zones: 6070 → 6090, 5970 if selling accelerates
$NQ:
🔹 Resistance: 22055 → 22065
🔹 Support: 21890 → 21757
🔹 Breakout Trigger: Above 22065 = buyers may target 22149+
🔹 Breakdown Trigger: Below 21890 = opens door to 21700–21676
📖 Educational Cue – Price Action ≠ Participation
The biggest mistake traders make on FOMC is equating fast moves with conviction.
But early FOMC moves are often dominated by algorithms and illiquid pushes. The real signal comes after:
When price holds or rejects the reaction zones
When volume confirms direction
When order flow aligns with the structure
That’s when you lean in.
Not before.
🧠 Scenario Branches
1. Pre-FOMC Drift → FOMC Breakout
Trigger: Price chops between 6023–6062 / 21890–22065 pre-FOMC
Post-FOMC: Breakout above resistance
Target: $ES 6090 / $NQ 22149+
Confirmation: Volume ramp, hold above VWAP post-break, stacked delta
2. Pre-FOMC Range → False Break → Trap Reversal
Trigger: Initial spike post-FOMC breaks a level (6062 / 22065 or 6023 / 21890)
→ Then reverses HARD
Target: Full range fade or trend in opposite direction
Confirmation: Failed follow-through, sharp reclaim, opposing volume surge
3. Range-Bound Resolution (No Breakout Today)
Trigger: Market holds between 6023–6062 and 21890–22065
→ Post-FOMC lacks volume or conviction
Target: Revert to mean, low initiative participation
Confirmation: Mixed delta, choppy bar closes, overlapping structure
🔚 Final Execution Cue
FOMC is a game of timing, not just direction.
You don’t win by guessing the move — you win by reading the reaction.
"The move that goes first is rarely the one that wins."
📌 Watch 6062 / 22065 and 6023 / 21890
📌 Wait for volume confirmation after FOMC
📌 React, don’t predict — context wins, not ego
Stay sharp, stay patient — this is where discipline pays.
🧠 Final Thoughts – Structure First, Emotion Last
We’re still in an uptrend — but on edge.
Whichever side wins today will likely carry the momentum into week's end.
Watch for the trap. Then ride the reversal.