Morning Update for Subscribers
Gap Filled — Now Comes the Test of Strength
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
Gap Filled — Now Comes the Test of Strength
📊 Open Pivots:
$ES: 6020
$NQ: 21858
🧭 Market Overview
After opening with a sharp gap down, prices did what they’ve done time and again — rallied hard.
Yesterday’s session was a full-on squeeze that marched back through the gap and closed inside Friday’s range. That reclaim flips the script.
Now the market is in a “fill and flip” pattern — filling the overnight gap, and now threatening to break out above Friday’s highs at:
🟢 $ES 6072
🟢 $NQ 22130
This morning, buyers are challenging the micro-breakout zone at $ES 6024 and $NQ 21879.
If they push through — the targets are 6057 and 21971.
But if this is just a dead cat bounce?
Expect sellers to reclaim control and rotate price back toward 6009 and 21813, with deeper liquidation risk below to 5962 and 21570.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Gap Fills Aren’t Neutral
Many traders treat gap fills as a “neutralizing” force — but that’s wrong.
Gaps are often energy zones — and how price responds after filling the gap reveals intent:
Gap filled & hold = balance zone → chop or breakout
Gap filled & reject = reversal magnet → back to origin
What we have this morning is a post-gap acceptance — now sitting inside Friday’s auction.
That means the market is trying to re-engage a former balance zone — and now the question is:
Does it rotate back to the top of balance?
Or reject and resume trend down?
🎯 Key Levels
$ES:
🔹 Breakout Zone: 6024
🔹 Upside Targets: 6057 → 6072
🔹 Support: 6009 → 5962
🔹 Breakdown Risk: Below 6009 = failed fill
$NQ:
🔹 Breakout Zone: 21879
🔹 Upside Targets: 21971 → 22130
🔹 Support: 21813 → 21570
🔹 Breakdown Risk: Below 21813 = liquidation potential
📖 Educational Cue – Breakouts After Gap Fills
Most gap fill rallies fail at the gap edge — only the strongest ones extend through and hold.
What you’re seeing this morning is Phase 2:
Phase 1: Bounce off the gap lows
Phase 2: Reclaim Friday’s range
Phase 3: Attempt full rotation to prior highs
This is not random — it’s the market retracing its steps to see if those levels still hold meaning.
What comes next depends on how committed buyers are at today’s breakout zones.
🧠 Scenario Branches
Breakout & Range Rotation
Trigger: $ES 6024 and $NQ 21879 break and hold
Target: $ES 6057–6072, $NQ 21971–22130
Invalidation: Rejection back into 6009 / 21813
False Breakout & Trap
Trigger: Early breakout fails, reversal back below pivots
Target: $ES 6009 → 5962, $NQ 21813 → 21570
Confirmation: No follow-through volume, delta reversal
Balance & Chop (Pre-OPEX Coil)
Trigger: No breakout, no rejection — just drift inside Friday range
Target: Ping-pong between 6009–6057 / 21813–21971
Watch: Lack of initiative, overlapping bars, volume tapering
📌 Final Thought – Reclaim vs. Rejection is the Game Today
This is where traders get faked out the most — after a strong gap-fill rally, they assume it’s trend.
But breakouts from reclaimed zones require confirmation — strong closes, clear delta, and low backfill.
📍 6024 and 21879 are today’s hinge.
Above? It’s a squeeze.
Below? It’s a fade.
Watch the 30m and 5m bar closes. They’ll show you who’s really in control.