Morning Update for Subscribers
Post-CPI Balance — At the Highs, but Not in Control
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
Post-CPI Balance — At the Highs, but Not in Control
📊 Open Pivots:
$ES: 6048
$NQ: 21989
🧭 Market Overview – Same Script, Higher Stakes
The script hasn’t changed — but the altitude has.
For the past few weeks, this market has followed a repeatable playbook:
🔹 Strong close
🔹 Overnight dip
🔹 Rounded base
🔹 Squeeze back to highs
Yesterday was no different. The overnight session absorbed early weakness and launched into CPI-fueled upside, hitting fresh multi-month highs. But unlike prior runs, this time price didn’t immediately fade — it balanced.
That’s the shift.
$ES has found temporary agreement around 6057.
$NQ is rotating around 22022.
We’re no longer just probing value — we’re attempting to build it higher. That makes today critical:
Was CPI the spark for a sustained leg up?
Or was it just the last excuse before backfill?
Structure is clear. The trend is intact. But continuation requires confirmation. This market doesn’t reward assumption — it punishes late conviction.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – The Post-Imbalance Pause
When price spikes on a catalyst — and stays up — it sends a clear AMT signal:
→ The market isn’t rejecting the move
→ It’s trying to anchor new value
We’ve moved from initiative imbalance into potential value migration. The volume and time spent around 6057 and 22022 suggests the auction is testing for acceptance.
But the process isn’t complete. We haven’t broken out — we’ve only paused the liquidation risk.
If today builds time above 6070 / 22076, it confirms the rally was not just reaction — but redefinition of value.
If we fail to hold those levels?
The rally unwinds. Trapped buyers fuel the fade.
🎯 Key Levels
$ES:
🔹 Support: 6032 → 6005
🔹 Resistance: 6085 → 6113
🔹 Bias Flip: 6070 (Initiative or fade)
🔹 Liquidation Trigger: < 6032 with rejection
$NQ:
🔹 Support: 21940 → 21860
🔹 Resistance: 22149 → 22305
🔹 Bias Flip: 22076
🔹 Liquidation Trigger: < 21940 with force
📖 Educational Cue – The Hidden Meaning of Post-Catalyst Balance
News events (like CPI) often create one-time spikes — emotion over structure. But when those spikes pause, the story changes.
This is not a market “cooling off.” It’s a market asking a question:
→ Are we comfortable with these prices?
→ Is the move accepted — or are we baiting late longs?
This is where context matters more than candles. Look at:
5m and 30m bar closes
Time spent above vs. below key structure
Whether price is accepted — or rejected — with force
The market doesn’t whisper here. It leaves footprints.
🧠 Scenario Branches
Continuation Higher
Trigger: $ES reclaims 6070 and $NQ clears 22076
Target: $ES 6085 → 6113
$NQ 22149 → 22305Invalidation: Drop back below 6040 / 21980
Confirmation: Bar closes above prior range highs with momentum and control
Trap & Reversal
Trigger: $ES loses 6032 and $NQ fails to hold 21940
Target: $ES → 6005 → 5970
$NQ → 21860 → 21700Invalidation: Clean reclaim of 6057 / 22022
Confirmation: Spike failure, lack of follow-through, immediate reversal bar sequence
Rebalance & Coil
Trigger: Price holds between 6032–6070 / 21940–22076
Target: Range rotation around new value zones
Invalidation: Break and acceptance outside 6057 / 22022
Confirmation: Thin directional moves, passive tempo, overlapping candles, inside bars
🔚 Final Execution Cue
We’re at the top of the ladder, but that doesn’t mean the move is done.
What matters now is not the price level — but the market’s ability to hold it.
Balance at highs is dangerous for both sides. It looks safe — until it snaps.
Stay patient. Let 30m closes show conviction.
Don’t chase. Trade who’s trapped — not what looks obvious.
📌 Final Thoughts – Control Isn’t About the Move. It’s About the Follow-Through.
Price can spike on emotion.
But holding that spike — building value after the move — is where control is proven.
We’re in that proving ground now.
Structure leads, not sentiment.
Let’s finish the week on process, not prediction.
“Fast moves get attention. Slow moves build conviction. Trade the second — not the first.”