Morning Update for Subscribers

Defense at the Weekly Lows But Pressure Remains

📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
Defense at the Weekly Lows — But Pressure Remains

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📊 Open Pivots:
ES: 6401
NQ: 23256

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🧭 Market Overview
As expected, the market extended its drop and drove straight into the weekly lows overnight. Both ES and NQ found strong responsive defense, narrowly avoiding fresh lows, but the pressure hasn’t been released — they may want to try again in today’s session.

The tape is still running hot. Overnight ranges expanded aggressively, and that type of volatility often carries into RTH, which means traders need to be extra cautious about chasing moves. The market is running fast, but it’s still running inside a broader range.

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📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Structural Context & Market Intent
What we’re seeing now is test-retest behavior at the edges of balance. Sellers drove initiative to the downside, probing for new value. Buyers responded, defending the shelf, but defense alone doesn’t reset the auction. If sellers press again and hold below, the structure transitions into imbalance extension lower.

At the same time, the overnight volatility tells us both sides are active. When value hasn’t shifted but ranges have widened, it’s a sign of distribution before resolution — traders positioning for whichever way the market decides. This often produces whipsaws intraday, so patience and confirmation are critical.

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🎯 Key Levels

ES:

• Minor Resistance: 6413

• Upside Squeeze: 6402 → 6430s

• Downside Targets: 6375 daily bias → 6341–6354 zone

NQ:

• Minor Resistance: 23330

• Upside Squeeze: 23260 → 23640s

• Downside Targets: 23130 daily bias → 22800s

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🧠 Scenario Branches

1. Continuation Lower

   • Trigger: Lose yesterday’s RTH low

   • Target: ES 6341–6354; NQ 22800s

   • Confirmation: Strong sell delta, no responsive buyers

2. Squeeze & Retrace

   • Trigger: Hold lows and reclaim 6402 ES / 23260 NQ

   • Target: ES 6430s; NQ 23640s retrace

   • Confirmation: Sustained trade above squeeze levels

3. Range-Building / Balance

   • Trigger: Hold between 6375–6413 ES and 23130–23330 NQ

   • Target: Ongoing distribution inside range

   • Confirmation: Overlapping trade, low initiative energy

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🔚 Final Execution Cue
The market pressed hard to test the weekly lows, but defense showed up. Now the question is simple: do sellers retest and break, or do buyers turn this into a squeeze? Trade patience today — overnight volatility can spill into RTH and produce fakeouts.

The lows are the line in the sand. If they hold, expect a squeeze. If they give, expect acceleration.