Morning Update for Subscribers
Mixed Signals, Critical Support Holds for Now
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Mixed Signals, Critical Support Holds for Now
📊 Open Pivots:
ES: 5968
NQ: 21448
🧭 Market Overview – Mixed Close Sets Up Tension
Yesterday’s close was a tale of two indices: ES closed strong and bullish, while NQ faded off highs and printed a bearish reversal. But it was NQ that won the move overnight, dragging both markets lower in early globex trade.
Prices pulled back cleanly into our support zones at ES 5954 and NQ 21370, and have since stabilized. Notably, both ES and NQ made new overnight highs before the dip, setting up a clear question for today:
Can buyers defend support and push back to those highs—or does weakness take over and pull price lower?
📌 Key Zones and Levels for Today
🔻 Downside Support Zones
ES: 5954 → 5941 → Must hold to avoid shifting short-term trend
NQ: 21370 → 21300 → Breakdown here reopens downside
🔼 Upside Resistance Zones
ES: 5969 → 5984 → OVN high is in this zone; breakout here targets 6000+
NQ: 21405 → 21420 → This is the battle zone for bulls; rejection here keeps bias neutral to bearish
📍 Bias Levels
ES: 5975
NQ: 21405
These are today’s directional bias levels. Above = bullish. Below = caution.
🎯 Trade Scenarios for Today
📍 Scenario 1: Buyers Defend 5954 / 21370 → Push Back to OVN Highs
If price holds this morning’s dip and stabilizes above bias levels, we could see a reclaim of 5984 and 21420.
📈 Strategy: Long setups only with confirmation. Look for reclaim bar or 5m higher lows. Risk below 5941.
📍 Scenario 2: Failure to Reclaim → Breakdown to 5925 / 21300
If buyers fail to lift price back through bias levels, and sellers press below support, bearish momentum may pick up.
📉 Strategy: Watch for failed retests of 5975 / 21405. Target 5941, then 5925. Use weak bounce as entries.
📍 Scenario 3: Chop Between 5941–5984 (ES) / 21370–21420 (NQ)
With conflicting overnight structure, we may see indecision and rotational flow all session.
⚖️ Strategy: Fade edges. Save size for confirmed breakouts. Stay patient until structure resolves.
📚 Auction Theory Insight – "Who Controls the High Ground?"
This morning’s narrative is about contested control:
Buyers took the market to new highs overnight—but failed to defend the move in early trade.
Sellers pushed price back to known support—but didn’t break it.
This tells us two things:
Value is building in the 5941–5984 (ES) and 21300–21420 (NQ) brackets.
Initiative traders (those who act first) are being tested—but not yet in control.
Auction logic says the market will probe both ends of value. The side that defends and extends first wins.
So ask yourself:
Who’s trying to control the auction today—and are they succeeding?
That answer will shape your bias.
🔚 Final Thoughts – Holding Pattern Until Structure Breaks
Until we get a close below 5925 (ES) or 21300 (NQ), the broader structure remains intact. That doesn’t mean we chase highs—but it does mean we respect strength until proven otherwise.
Today’s focus:
Watch 5975 / 21405 for early control
Watch 5941 / 21370 for structural failure
Wait for confirmation before choosing a side
Let the market prove it. Stay alert. Stay tactical.
#MorningUpdate #AuctionMarketTheory #ES #NQ #FuturesTrading #BiasLevels #PriceAction