Morning Update for Subscribers
Breakout Continues, Now Testing Major Reference Levels
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers — Breakout Continues, Now Testing Major Reference Levels
🔹 Open Pivots:
$ES: 5916
$NQ: 21,337
Prices continue the upside breakout and hold the gains with impressive strength. While $NQ has been leading the charge, $ES is catching up slowly, and all signs still point to bullish momentum holding—for now.
📌 Next Upside Targets
$ES: 5935 → 5975 → 6166 (all-time high)
$NQ: 21,405 → 21,533 → 21,666
🚨 Why 5935 Matters
5935 isn’t just another level—it was the 2024 year-end close, and has now reemerged as a psychological magnet. These “reference prices” carry anchoring effects in trader behavior. When prices return to them, they ignite reactions:
At 5935, we can say, “$ES is $500 off the ATH.”
At 5932, we say, “Price is $1100 off the lows (4832).”
These reference points drive market memory and positioning decisions. Don't ignore them.
📚 Psychology of Breakouts — Why Traders Struggle Here
Many are struggling with this breakout move—and understandably so.
Not because it’s wrong, but because breakouts feel psychologically unnatural.
"Trend trades don’t give you control—they force you to surrender."
Humans are pattern-recognizing machines, and trading ranges feel safe:
The pre-breakout range was orderly, slow, familiar.
The breakout is fast, chaotic, and forces reactive behavior.
But here's the truth:
Trending markets are actually more predictable than chop.
It's just that your brain doesn't get to predict—it must respond.
So instead of going with the trend, many traders:
Fade the highs to feel early.
Fight the move to feel smart.
Exit too early because the speed triggers fear.
That’s the real edge here:
🧠 Rewiring what “feels right.”
Recognize that discomfort doesn’t mean danger—it often means opportunity.
📊 Key Levels & Market Map
$ES Key Zones:
Support: 5877 (top of prior range), 5853, 5829
Resistance: 5935, 5975, 6166
$NQ Key Zones:
Support: 21,149 → 21,000
Resistance: 21,405 → 21,533 → 21,666
🛠 Trade Scenarios
Scenario 1: Trend Continuation
$ES holds above 5916 → Next stop is 5935 and then 5975.
$NQ pushes 21,405 → Expect momentum extension into 21,533.
Scenario 2: Exhaustion Pullback
Price fails near 5935 and 21,405 → Watch for fast pullbacks to 5877 ($ES) and 21,149 ($NQ).
This would still be within trend, not a reversal—yet.
Scenario 3: Fakeout
Quick dip below 5916 followed by fast reclaim → “look below and fail” long setups trigger.
This may set up another squeeze leg toward 5975.
🎯 Final Thoughts — Anchor to the Market, Not to Your Bias
Don’t let the urge to control override the clarity of the trend.
Breakouts reward flexibility—not stubbornness.
Price is telling a story. Our job is to:
Map the levels,
Understand the narrative, and
Execute based on what is, not what we feel.
Stay nimble. Stay focused. Stay aligned with the context.