Morning Update for Subscribers
Rollover Week – Watch the Gaps and Key Levels
📈 Morning Update for Subscribers
Rollover Week – Watch the Gaps and Key Levels
🔹 Open Pivots:
$ES: 5713 (March contract)
$NQ: 19933 (March contract)
📌 Market Overview – Rollover Dynamics in Play
Today marks the first full day of trading on the March futures contracts, and as expected, rollover has created some technical gaps that the market will be focused on.
$ES left a gap at 5681, which markets often test and fill after rollover.
Additionally, we still have the untested 5630 level from the prior contract.
How price behaves around these areas will set the tone:
✔️ Do buyers defend, or do sellers push to fill the gap and target deeper levels?
✔️ Does the market ignore the gap, signaling strength and the potential for a bigger rally?
📊 Key Trading Levels to Watch
✅ Upside Targets:
5713 Open Pivot holds → bullish tone
A rally above 5740 opens the door for a move toward 5800-5830, with a bigger squeeze potential toward 5965 (next major upside target if momentum builds).
❌ Downside Risks:
5681 Gap Fill: First downside target. Watch how the market reacts here. If buyers defend, it signals strength.
5630 Untested Level: If 5681 breaks, watch for acceleration into this key level. Failure to hold 5630 can trigger a sharp sell-off.
Below 5630, the market could be vulnerable to revisiting 5500 levels.
📚 Educational Insights – How to Trade Rollover Gaps
Rollover weeks often introduce gaps and price dislocations due to differences between contracts. Here's how to approach:
✔️ Be cautious with gaps: Gaps tend to attract price action. Markets often test them before resolving.
✔️ Use the gap as a decision zone: Strong buyers will defend above the gap; failure to hold suggests sellers are in control.
✔️ Volume is tricky: Volume may be thin or uneven as traders adjust positions into the new contract. Don’t overreact to the first move.
📌 Trading Plan Today:
Scenario 1 (Bullish): Hold 5713-5681 zone → Rally toward 5800+. Confirmed if price starts holding above 5740.
Scenario 2 (Bearish): Failure to hold 5681 → Test 5630. A break of 5630 opens risk for fast downside extension.
🔎 Final Thoughts:
✔️ Today’s battle is all about the rollover gap at 5681.
✔️ If bulls hold above, the path opens toward 5965 retest in the coming sessions.
✔️ Failure to hold 5681 → 5630 becomes the magnet and the test of whether the market is setting up for a bigger sell-off.
Stay nimble—rollover volatility tends to fake out weak hands.
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