Morning Update for Subscribers
Key Breakdown Levels on Watch
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Key Breakdown Levels on Watch
📊 Open Pivots:
$ES: 5381
$NQ: 18667
📌 Overnight Price Action Recap
Markets flushed hard during the overnight Globex session:
$ES dropped nearly 100 points from the close, tagging the 5380 zone we’ve been tracking.
$NQ broke below 19,000 and is now eyeing a move back under 18,000.
Despite the weakness, yesterday failed to close below 5420—but today’s open below 5380 may be the trigger for larger downside momentum.
📌 Key Context – 5380 Breakdown Could Trigger Leg Lower
5380 has been our line in the sand—a sustained break and open below could usher in the next 30% leg lower in the current downtrend.
We’ve been monitoring lower highs, failed breakouts, and increasing seller strength over the past several sessions.
While we remain skeptical of breakdowns without confirmation, the current setup demands close attention.
📌 Key Levels to Watch Today
🔻 Downside Targets:
5334 → Prior support zone; first target on breakdown.
5323 → Minor support; price often pauses or traps here.
5291 → 5267 → Structural targets if sellers press aggressively.
5238 → Long-term swing target if 5378 breaks convincingly.
🔼 Upside Levels:
5380–5385 → Must be reclaimed quickly to neutralize breakdown potential.
5420 → Still the pivot for swing control; any move back above suggests sellers are exhausted.
5441 → 5480 → Resistance zones where we’ve repeatedly seen seller control.
📌 Key Scenarios and Trading Plans
📍 Scenario 1: Breakdown Confirmed
Open and hold below 5380 → Watch for continuation selling.
Targets: 5334 → 5323 → 5291, with a potential overshoot to 5267/5238.
Strategy: Favor breakdown continuation shorts with tight risk at reclaimed zones.
📍 Scenario 2: False Breakdown Trap
Dip below 5380, but price quickly reclaims on strong momentum.
Traps early shorts and fuels a squeeze back to 5420.
Strategy: Look for a reversal signal on the tape or strong reclaim bar above 5385 to attempt long back toward midpoint.
📍 Scenario 3: Chop and Grind
Price trades between 5334–5385 without directional follow-through.
Market waits on news or volume confirmation.
Strategy: Avoid chasing—trade level to level with defined stop/risk.
📚 Educational Insight – “If Below, Then It Can Happen”
📌 We often say: “Not saying it will happen, but if price is below a key level—it can happen.”
This is the foundation of probability-driven trading:
Price below a threshold level opens the door to a scenario.
It doesn’t guarantee the outcome—but it’s where the path is cleared for a move to develop.
Today, 5380 is that threshold. It’s not predictive—it’s conditional.
Know the probabilities. Don’t predict—prepare.
📌 Final Thoughts
🔍 Watch 5380 like a hawk—open and hold below = potential breakdown.
⚔️ 5420 remains the swing battle zone.
🧠 Stay adaptive. The market is still volatile, and reversals can be violent.
🚨 Don't anticipate moves—respond to what price confirms.
Let’s stay sharp and level-headed. Trade your edge.