Morning Update for Subscribers
Tariff Shock Triggers Historic Selloff – What's Next?
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
🔥 Tariff Shock Triggers Historic Selloff – What's Next?
📊 Market Overview & Open Pivots
🔹 $ES Open Pivot: 5510
🔹 $NQ Open Pivot: 19928
📉 Market Context: Massive Repricing on Tariff Headlines
Markets were hit hard overnight following unexpected tariff headlines, resulting in one of the largest and fastest selloffs in months:
$NQ dropped 1200 points in 2 hours, a historic collapse.
$ES fell over 300 points from yesterday’s highs.
Panic selling swept through the overnight session, breaking nearly every support level on the way down.
This is a market experiencing forced liquidation and margin panic, not just routine volatility.
📌 Key Inflection Levels for Today
🔺 Resistance Zones (Upside Recovery Targets)
5627 ($ES) – Globex midpoint and first test to assess any real recovery strength.
19971 ($NQ) – Key prior level and upside squeeze target.
5535 ($ES) – Must reclaim this to slow the bleeding.
🔻 Support Zones (Downside Risk Areas)
5500 / 5460 ($ES) – Psychological and technical supports.
19500 → 19300 ($NQ) – Levels from which buyers previously attempted to stage a bottom.
Any break below 5500 ($ES) can open the door to 5300s and beyond if panic accelerates.
🧠 Market Education: What to Expect After a Historic Drop
Markets must reprice risk after unexpected macro events like tariffs. Here's how it usually plays out:
Phase 1 – Panic Flush: Huge gap down, momentum selling, liquidity vanishes.
Phase 2 – Volatility Shock: Fast bounces and reversals trap late shorts and impatient longs.
Phase 3 – Compression or Continuation: Either we base and recover… or we begin the next leg lower.
✅ Tip: Focus on midpoint recaptures (like 5627). This is often where buyers and sellers reveal their true hand.
If buyers can hold above 5535, we may see attempts to fill back into the selloff range.
Failure to do so = further liquidation.
🎯 Trading Scenarios for Today
✅ Scenario 1: Drop and Pop (Bullish Recovery Attempt)
Price drops hard off the RTH open but holds above 5460–5500.
Look for reversal confirmation on 1–5 minute candles.
Target: 5535 → 5580 → 5627 (Globex midpoint).
Stop: Below 5460.
✅ Scenario 2: Bear Trend Day (Continuation Selloff)
If 5535 fails to hold, expect another wave of selling.
Sellers target: 5450 → 5385 → 5300s.
Momentum-style trading best with small size and tight stops.
✅ Scenario 3: Inside Day or Chop Base
Market holds a range between 5500–5627.
Expect price to compress ahead of another headline or macro event.
Best strategy here: scalps or sit out and wait for structure to develop.
📌 Final Thoughts – Extreme Risk = Extreme Discipline
This is not the day to overtrade or “prove a point” to the market.
Markets like this will humble everyone—but they also offer rare opportunities if you stay disciplined.
✔ Let the market show its hand.
✔ Prioritize survival and preservation of capital.
✔ Take profits fast if you're right.
✔ Exit quickly if you're wrong.
Today could be a "drop and pop" kind of session—but the burden is on the buyers to prove it.
Stay safe, stay sharp, and stick to your plan.
#MorningUpdate #ES_F #NQ_F #TariffSelloff #AuctionTheory