📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
Uptrend Intact — But Watch the Traps
📊 Open Pivots:
ES: 6484
NQ: 23595
🧭 Market Overview
The pattern has been consistent: daytime rallies, nighttime selloffs. Despite those overnight fades, the broader trend remains up. That rhythm reflects hesitation — traders want exposure to the upside but remain cautious about “buying the top.”
Today’s open sets the stage around two zones: ES 6484 / NQ 23595 pivots. Above, buyers will test the Mom Zone at 6495–6505, which doubles as resistance and today’s sentiment gauge. Below, 23530–70 in NQ is the key support shelf — the base for any next leg higher. Slip under 23530 and the posture shifts bearish.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Structural Context & Market Intent
The auction is operating in a trending framework with repeated responsive resets. Each overnight flush clears buyside liquidity, creating fuel for the following session’s rally. This “opposite move first” behavior is common in strong auctions: quick moves to shake out weak hands, then initiative drives in the true direction.
The distinction is speed. A fast break lower that immediately snaps back is a liquidity flush — the setup for continuation higher. A slow grind lower is not a trap, it’s a trend. That distinction matters for today’s execution. The Mom Zone 6495–6505 in ES will reveal sentiment: rejection there keeps us rotational, but acceptance above it opens the door to higher-timeframe expansion.
❓ What is the market attempting to do?
It is attempting to sustain the uptrend while using liquidity flushes to fuel continuation.
🤔 Is it succeeding?
Yes, tentatively. The uptrend holds, but conviction is muted until buyers clear 6495–6505 ES with acceptance.
🎯 Key Levels
ES:
Resistance / Sentiment Gauge: 6495–6505
Open Pivot: 6484
Support Shelf: 6460 → 6435
NQ:
Support Base: 23530–70
Open Pivot: 23595
Breakdown Risk: < 23530
📖 Educational Cue
Strong markets often move in paradoxes. They flush liquidity against the trend before resuming it. The “opposite move first” only works when it’s decisive and fast — hesitation means it’s not a trap, it’s trend continuation. Traders who can read speed and intent in these moves avoid false fades and catch true continuation.
🧠 Scenario Branches
🔥 Continuation Up
Trigger: Hold above 6484 ES / 23595 NQ, break through 6495–6505
Target: ES 6525 → 6540; NQ 23670 → 23750
Invalidation: Failure back below pivots
Confirmation: Fast reclaim, trapped sellers, delta support
🎯 Trap & Reversal Down
Trigger: Failure at 6495–6505 with sharp rejection, or NQ slips under 23530
Target: ES 6460 → 6435; NQ 23470 → 23380
Invalidation: Reclaim above 6495–6505 ES / 23570 NQ
Confirmation: High-volume rejection, failed retests higher, seller absorption
🔄 Balance / Chop Setup
Trigger: ES rotates 6460–6505; NQ holds 23530–23620
Target: Neutral range, coil for expansion later in the week
Invalidation: Break outside edges with acceptance
Confirmation: Overlapping value, two-sided delta, failed range extensions
🔚 Final Execution Cue
This market still wants higher, but it doesn’t trust itself. Expect liquidity flushes and fast opposite moves. Read speed — if it’s not quick, it’s not a trap.
📌 Final Thoughts – Execute With Context, Not Emotion
Buyers still own the trend, but conviction lives above 6495–6505 ES. NQ 23530 is the key fail line. Until then, play the rhythm: flush, then follow-through.
Trade confirmation, not anticipation.
Structure confirms. Conviction follows.
