Morning Update for Subscribers
Overnight Squeeze or Real Reversal?
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Overnight Squeeze or Real Reversal?
📊 Open Pivots:
$ES: 5233
$NQ: 18110
📌 Overview – Major Overnight Rally, But Can It Hold?
Markets saw a sharp recovery overnight, erasing a significant chunk of yesterday’s flush. But let’s not forget—we’re still well below last Friday’s levels, and this rally has been built almost entirely in Globex, where liquidity is thinner and conviction is lower.
As always, we remain cautious. These overnight rallies often lack real support until they prove themselves during the cash session.
🔑 Key Price Zones & Trade Levels
🔺 Upside Levels to Watch:
5244 (ES) – First major squeeze trigger. Above here, sellers begin to get squeezed.
5280s (ES) – Next upside target if buyers hold above 5244.
18290 (NQ) – Top of recent structure; breaking here opens door to 18400+.
🔻 Downside Levels to Watch:
5216 (ES) – Rug pull zone.
If buyers lose this level intraday, expect fast liquidation down to 5180 → 5140.
5140 (ES) – Last Globex support. Below here, could target 5100 quickly.
17890 (NQ) – Breakdown trigger. Below this, NQ likely seeks 17650 → 17400.
📚 Educational Insight – How to Read Globex Rallies
Globex rallies can be misleading:
They occur in low liquidity, often due to short covering or thin books.
Until price proves acceptance during RTH, they’re often faded back down.
What to watch:
Can price hold above 5244 during the first 30–60 mins of cash session?
Are buyers protecting dips or letting support get run?
📌 Today’s Trading Scenarios
📍 Scenario 1 – Squeeze Continuation
Reclaim and hold above 5244 early in the session.
Look for fast moves into 5280s, potentially 5320+ by tomorrow.
Best setups: Pullbacks into 5244 → 5228 and buyers defending.
📍 Scenario 2 – Failed Rally → Rug Pull
Price rejects above 5244 and closes under 5216.
This invalidates the overnight rally and triggers drop to 5140 → 5100.
Best setups: Look for rejection candles near 5244, entry on close below 5216.
📍 Scenario 3 – Chop & Coil
Price trades between 5216 and 5244.
Watch for clues—does it build structure to break out or break down?
Stay nimble and avoid overtrading the chop.
🔥 Final Thoughts
Overnight squeeze ≠ confirmed trend reversal.
5244 is the battleground—whoever controls this zone likely controls the day.
Be on the lookout for bull traps above resistance or fast flushes if support gives out.
We’re still in a fragile market, so manage risk and stay focused on levels that matter.
🛠 Plan your trade. Trade your plan. Don’t chase. Don’t hesitate.
#ES_F #NQ_F #FuturesTrading #SubscriberUpdate