Morning Update for Subscribers
Markets Crash to Key Levels – Is the Worst Over or Just Beginning?
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
📉 Markets Crash to Key Levels – Is the Worst Over or Just Beginning?
📊 Open Pivots
🔹 $ES: 5000
🔹 $NQ: 17134
This morning’s pivots say it all:
Since our last session, markets have crashed—not just a dip, but one of the most aggressive and historic selloffs we've seen in a very long time.
Yet despite the volatility, we’ve been nailing key trade levels and setups with surgical precision in this channel. Members have had ample opportunity to capitalize on both the short and relief rally sides.
🔎 Market Context – Why This Isn’t Over
We are now well below major supports and the selling is still being respected at each rally attempt. Yes, we are very oversold. Yes, a relief rally could happen. But here’s the truth learned during Covid and other crash cycles:
📌 Markets can rally 10%, trap everyone, then drop another 15%
📌 The bigger the rally, the nastier the next fall.
This is a liquidity regime. And liquidity breaks down both up and down in massive, violent fashion.
🔑 Key Levels for Today
📈 Upside Levels – Relief Rally Triggers
5019 – reclaiming this opens room for:
5066 minor resistance
5102 → 5148 → even 5200s on extreme squeezes
Expect 200pt to 500pt rallies in a single day (yes, seriously)
📉 Downside Levels – Breakdown Triggers
4965 – holding below opens the door for:
4865 (already hit)
4800 major magnet
And if momentum continues, 4600–4700 range next
Single-session drops of 500–800 points are now in play
🧠 Strategy & Trading Plan
In this environment, trend-following becomes difficult, and fade setups become dangerous. Here's what to do:
✅ Look For:
Exhaustion wicks near key levels
Failed reclaims of support-turned-resistance (like 5019 or 5066)
Bear flags or lower highs forming under resistance zones
❌ Avoid:
Trading without a stop
Over-leveraging
Getting emotional over missed moves or unrealized PnL
This is where many traders either level up or blow up. Don’t overthink it—just trade the structure.
🧠 Education Insight – Why Huge Rallies Happen in Bear Markets
In a bear market:
The largest counter-trend rallies happen
They’re fueled by short covering, trapped longs, and emotional reversals
They’re fast, sharp, and often reversed just as fast
That’s why we often say:
“The more violent the relief rally, the more dangerous the drop that follows.”
These moves aren’t signs of health—they’re signs of instability and disorder.
🧭 Final Thoughts – Stay Disciplined in Chaos
We’re in a period of extreme volatility and rapidly shifting sentiment. But even in this environment:
✔ The levels still work
✔ The structure still matters
✔ The edge is still real—if you stay patient and precise
Watch 5019 closely today for upside attempts. If that fails and we break 4965, the bear trend continues toward 4800 and possibly much lower.
Let’s finish the week strong. Stick to the plan.