Morning Update for Subscribers
Range Continues as Sellers Hesitate
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Range Continues as Sellers Hesitate
📊 Open Pivots:
$ES: 5428
$NQ: 19906
📌 Market Overview – Range Holds, Sellers Show Hesitation
Price action overnight followed our anticipated playbook:
$ES traded within the 5420–5480 range, failing to break out or break down with conviction.
While sellers continued to lean on the lower end of the range, they failed to hold price below 5420, revealing a lack of initiative or follow-through.
This sets the stage for more range-bound chop until one side makes a decisive move. The market is clearly probing for weakness, but as of now, neither bulls nor bears have committed to direction.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
🔹 Resistance:
5480 – Top of range; remains untested in the overnight session. Possible cash session magnet.
5440 – Minor breakout level above current value.
🔹 Support:
5420 – Key range floor. A breakdown level, but so far only tested without confirmation.
5378 – Bear target on confirmed breakdown.
📈 Trade Plans for Today
📍 Plan A – Pop & Drop Setup (Likely Early Move)
Expect the market to test 5480 at the cash open → the “opposite move first” scenario.
If price rejects 5480, short setups can trigger back down to 5420 and possibly 5378.
📍 Plan B – Breakdown Trade
If price closes 1m/5m bars below 5420, it confirms sellers have gained traction.
Look for continuation to 5378 and possibly lower if volume confirms.
📍 Plan C – Bullish Breakout
If price closes above 5440 with strength and momentum, it opens up the top of the range at 5480 as the first target.
A breakout above 5480 would trigger stops and possibly lead to a quick run toward 5520.
📚 Educational Insight – What Side Is Winning the Range?
Pressure on the lower end of the range is typically a precursor to a breakdown…
But when sellers hesitate or fail to follow through, it often traps shorts and leads to short-covering rallies.
Watch the behavior at range extremes. If 5420 breaks but fails, it’s a signal for bulls. If 5480 breaks but fails, it’s a bear trap setup.
🛠 Key Closing Structure to Watch
Below 5420: Confirms breakdown attempt; target 5378
Above 5480: Confirms bullish squeeze; target 5520
Inside 5420–5480: More chop likely, use edges for tactical trades
🔥 Final Thoughts
The market remains range-bound with strong levels clearly defined.
Keep expectations realistic: the real move will happen once one side proves initiative.
Sellers failed to close below 5420 yesterday, a sign of hesitation, which increases the odds of chop or false breakdowns.
Let the market show its hand—don’t anticipate, confirm.
Stay sharp and ready for volatility on breakout attempts!