Morning Update for Subscribers
Lazy Breakdown or Impulse Loading?
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Lazy Breakdown or Impulse Loading?
📊 Open Pivots:
$ES: 5663
$NQ: 19992
📌 Overview: Friday's Bullish Close Meets Monday's Gap Down
The market gapped down overnight after a bullish Friday close—notably the first close above 5697 since the March low near 4800. That level, 5697, was our original “crash trigger,” responsible for launching nearly a 1000-point liquidation last time it gave way. Now, we’re back underneath it.
The open at 5663 tells us sellers regained control into Globex, and we’re now watching whether this was just a retrace of the big squeeze—or the start of something more sustained. Price action has been slow, grinding, and uncertain—what we often refer to as lazy price action. This isn’t the kind of aggressive selling that rips lower—but it’s the kind that builds pressure silently, then breaks hard.
📍 Key Levels & Sentiment Markers
🔑 Trend Day Structure:
Resistance: 5697 → 5710 → 5750
Support: 5630 → 5570 → 5531
Daily Extremes: 5780 above, 5484 below
🔍 Market Sentiment Zones (use for bias checks):
$ES above 5697 = bullish control
$ES below 5697 = bearish control
$NQ above 20149 = bullish sentiment
$NQ below 19971 = bearish sentiment
Use these zones to gauge directional conviction.
📖 Narrative Analysis: Lazy Trends Lead to Violent Moves
Right now, price is coiling along the 5660s, showing no real urgency or initiative. That’s deceptive. Lazy price action like this often fools traders into overconfidence—until it expands violently.
If this is a retracement of the previous squeeze, then the expected behavior is a drift down into 5630, test, and then either break away or trap. But if this is a new breakout forming, expect the cash session to ignite that move.
This is where Auction Market Theory shines:
Price goes too far in one direction to find out it’s wrong.
Friday’s push above 5697 may have been that “too far” moment.
Now we wait: Does price auction lower to find buyers, or do we reclaim 5697 and squeeze again?
Remember: Price has to go too high or too low to prove it’s wrong. That’s auction logic. Excess must be created before reversals occur.
🎯 Trade Strategy Scenarios
📌 Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown Below 5630
Bearish continuation confirmed under 5630
Target: 5570 → 5531 → 5484
Watch for acceleration if we get strong selling volume
📌 Scenario 2: Snap Reclaim of 5697
Failed breakdown setup triggers short squeeze
Target: 5710 → 5750 → possible wick to 5780
Use smaller size until buyers confirm with structure
📌 Scenario 3: Chop at Value (5660s Drift)
If neither side takes initiative, expect chop between 5630–5697
Trade smaller. Look for trap setups at extremes of range
Avoid midrange noise and emotional trades
📚 Education: Staying Nimble ≠ Scalping
Being nimble doesn’t mean jumping in and out all day or chasing price every 5 minutes. Nimble means being mentally and tactically flexible—willing to flip your plan when the data changes.
✅ Nimble traders wait for high-probability setups.
✅ They adapt, not react.
✅ They preserve capital and avoid overexposing in the middle of ranges.
Checklist for Nimble Execution:
Are we at a key level (like 5697 or 5630)?
Is the price showing clear reaction (wicks, volume shifts, order flow changes)?
Do I know my risk and exit BEFORE entering?
Am I trading what I see, or what I hope will happen?
🧠 Final Thoughts – Patience Before Precision
5697 remains our master level.
5660s is current value. Chop likely until price breaks out.
If 5630 fails, it opens the door to a much deeper sell.
If 5697 is reclaimed, expect pain for shorts again.
Stay focused. Stay selective. It’s not that a big move will happen—but conditions are set for it to happen.
#MorningUpdate #FuturesTrading #AuctionTheory #ES #NQ