Morning Update for Subscribers
Buyers Must Prove It Testing Control Levels Early
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
Buyers Must Prove It Testing Control Levels Early
📊 Open Pivots:
ES: 6466
NQ: 23772
🧭 Market Overview
Sunday’s sharp rally lifted ES to 6484 and NQ to the 23880s, but by Monday’s open those gains had been surrendered. Prices slid back to make new local lows, with ES even pressing below Friday’s low. The immediate question for today: Can buyers defend?
The last meaningful move was lower, and that puts the burden on buyers to respond. If they can hold 6470 ES and 23840 NQ, it establishes control and keeps the broader uptrend intact. If not, sellers may finally press their advantage into deeper pullback zones.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Higher-Level Context
At new highs, the market is in what’s called “top discovery mode.” Each time buyers push to a new high, they must prove that demand is sustainable — otherwise, the market risks exhaustion.
Here’s why it matters:
Every new high is a test. The market is asking: “Was that the top?” If sellers respond strongly and buyers fail to absorb, that high becomes a candidate for exhaustion.
Proving continuation requires defense. Buyers must show they can hold pullbacks and convert resistance into support. Without that defense, the new high looks more like an emotional spike than a legitimate step higher.
Tops aren’t declared instantly. They emerge when a series of highs can’t hold, and the market structure stops filling in above. Until then, every failure is just a test, and the auction keeps searching.
This is why today’s levels matter. Defending 6470 ES and 23840 NQ tells us buyers still want to keep the auction pointed higher. Losing them signals buyers may have gone “too far, too fast” — and the market will shift into discovery of lower value.
🎯 Key Levels
ES:
Bull/Bias: > 6470 holds = buyers still control
Resistance: 6484–6502 (breakout shelves)
Downside: 6454 → 6413 if sellers press
NQ:
Bull/Bias: > 23840 holds = buyers defend
Resistance: 23906–23960
Downside: 23757 → 23640s deeper
🔚 Final Execution Cue
This week begins with a simple test: can buyers defend last week’s lows while proving that yesterday’s highs weren’t “too much, too soon”? Hold above 6470/23840, and the auction keeps searching higher. Lose them, and sellers finally gain room to work.
The market always asks the same question at the highs: “Is that the top?” Only buyer defense decides the answer.
