Morning Update for Subscribers
Rejection or Reload? The Market’s at a Decision Point
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
🎯 Rejection or Reload? The Market’s at a Decision Point
⚡ Open Pivots:
$ES: 6213
$NQ: 22748
📈 Overnight Recap – Rally → Stall → Retest
The market followed the exact roadmap we’ve been tracking:
✅ New highs were made overnight — $ES pushing near 6230, $NQ to 22800
🚫 But those highs stalled just before full breakout targets
🔁 Prices are now back below our key control zones:
• $ES 6213
• $NQ 22730
This puts the market in neutral-to-bearish short-term posture — not full reversal yet, but momentum is pausing.
🔍 Auction Theory Insight – When Resistance Becomes Active
Look at how 22730, once a breakout target, is now functioning as resistance.
This is a classic market auction behavior:
What was previously offered out is now being defended — sellers have engaged.
Price is coiling beneath key reference levels, and unless bulls reclaim 22730 / 6213, the edge shifts to the sellers in the short term.
🧠 Bias Levels for Today:
$ES: 6202
$NQ: 22757
These are your daily bias zones. Whichever side of these levels price closes on will shape the narrative for the rest of the session and potentially tomorrow’s open.
🎯 Upside Breakout Setup (Only if 22730 Reclaims):
$ES: 6230 → 6246
$NQ: 22840 → 22920
Buyers must reclaim 22730 and get back above the open pivot 22748 to unlock these upside continuation levels. Watch volume and bar closes for confirmation.
📉 Downside Targets (If Rejection Holds):
$ES: 6202 → 6170
$NQ: 22640 → 22565
Below 6202 and 22730, sellers can drive price back into the lower balance zone. A clean break of 22640 / 6170 may trigger larger unwinds — possibly toward Friday’s breakout retest zones.
🚨 Setup Notes – Wait for Control to Be Shown
Today’s theme:
"Don’t guess — let price show who’s in control."
✅ No longs unless 22730 is reclaimed with strength
❌ No shorts unless we fail below 22640 / 6202 with momentum
It’s a wait-and-see open — with potential for major directional clarity if either side breaks.
🎙️ Final Thought – This Is a Chess Match
Yesterday’s rally was clean, powerful, and gave us all the right clues.
Today? It’s a test of patience.
📌 Let the levels confirm the story.
📌 Use your edges, not your urges.
📌 This is how strong markets test weak hands.
Stay alert — and remember:
The market doesn't care about how high it’s gone. It cares about who’s in control right now.
— Theory Affinity Team