Morning Update for Subscribers
Wednesday Whipsaw Watch Begins
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Wednesday Whipsaw Watch Begins
📊 Open Pivots:
ES: 5939
NQ: 21509
🧭 Market Overview – Bullish Open, But Caution: It’s Wednesday
We opened above the pivots today, setting a bullish tone — but it’s Wednesday, statistically the most treacherous trading day of the week. Price action tends to be predatory, punishing emotional traders and late chasers.
If the open is weak → watch for the fakeout reversal higher.
If the open is strong → beware the bull trap reversal lower.
This week’s action has featured sharp one-sided moves that reverse without warning — the kind that retraces the entire prior leg in minutes. It’s great if you’re ahead of the move — disastrous if you’re chasing.
📈 Today’s Price Action & Levels to Watch
🔼 $ES
✅ Broke out above 5917 → 5935 → now testing 5950
🎯 Target: 5982, with longer-term magnet at 6017
🧠 Key Level Chain: 5817 → 5917 → 6017
❗ Still lagging NQ, but showing initiative. Needs to close above 5950 to confirm breakout.
🔼 $NQ
✅ Cleared our breakout level at 21535
🎯 Target Range: 21622–21676
🧠 Continues to lead, but will need momentum buyers to step in above 21560 to sustain this breakout leg.
🕯️ Overnight Lows (O/N Levels):
ES: 5917
NQ: 21405–21420
✅ Both levels held and launched the current move — they’re now key downside invalidation zones.
🔍 Auction Market Theory Insight – What is the Market Trying to Do?
Establish new value higher.
We’re seeing an effort by buyers to break above prior resistance and accept price at higher levels.
✅ Is it succeeding?
So far, yes. Both ES and NQ printed new highs vs yesterday — and held above prior structure.
But here's the thing…
Moves like this tend to retrace.
And they do it right after you finally decide to join them.
Why? Because your entry adds fuel for the exit.
That’s how auctions work — they exploit imbalance until it’s rebalanced.
📌 Key Levels for Today
🔼 Upside Levels
ES: 5950 → 5982 → 6017
NQ: 21560 → 21622 → 21676
🔻 Downside Invalidation Zones
ES: 5935 → 5917 → 5869
NQ: 21500 → 21420 → 21300
📍 Scenarios & Strategy
📍 Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
Price holds above 5950 / 21535
✅ Follow-through targets engaged
📈 Strategy: Join pullbacks to structure. Look for 5m reclaim off prior highs.
📍 Scenario 2: Fade Reversal
Price trades above key level but fails to hold
🎯 Watch for lower highs and weak reclaim attempts
📉 Strategy: Fade rejection at highs, target midpoint or O/N levels.
📍 Scenario 3: Choppy Grind (Typical Wednesday)
Price moves in 30–50pt swings with no trend commitment
🎲 Stay level-headed, manage risk, don’t chase.
🧠 Final Thoughts – Read the Auction, Not Your Emotions
Markets are pressing higher. But risk is elevated due to aggressive rotations and sharp reversals. If you're chasing, you're likely the exit liquidity.
Respect your plan. Trust your levels.
📌 Wait for price to prove it — not your FOMO.
Let the market speak. You listen.
Stay sharp. Stay ready. Stay professional.