Morning Update for Subscribers
Bulls Push Higher but Midweek Volatility Looms
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Bulls Push Higher but Midweek Volatility Looms
📊 Open Pivots
$ES: 5445
$NQ: 18924
📌 Overview – Bulls in Control (For Now)
Markets are following through on yesterday’s strong close, which held above Power Pivots—a textbook signal for overnight strength. Overnight, we’ve now hit $ES 5450s, driven in part by a moderation in Trump’s tariff stance, which markets viewed favorably.
But this is Wednesday—the toughest day of the week for price action. Be prepared for a grind, fakeouts, and tougher fills. Bulls still have the edge, but it’s fragile. A break of support could unwind this rally fast.
📈 Key Levels & Scenarios
✅ Upside Scenarios – If Bulls Hold 5401 & 18800
Targets:
$ES: 5514 → then stretch to 5700+
$NQ: 19180 → continuation possible if bulls stay in control
How to Trade It:
Watch for pullbacks into 5401 / 18800.
Look for a higher low and strong 5-min/15-min bar close → confirmation for squeeze re-entry.
🚨 Downside Scenarios – If Sellers Reclaim Below 5401 & 18800
Targets:
$ES: 5344 → 5289
$NQ: 18660 → 18360
How to Trade It:
Look for signs of seller pressure near resistance (e.g., 5475 or 5490) that fails to hold.
A close below 5401 would be a notable shift in control.
📚 Educational Insight – The Importance of Daily Closes
Yesterday’s close was critical—bears were inches away from locking in a daily close below 5295. Had that happened, the market structure could have unraveled today. Instead, bulls closed it strong and triggered a 3%+ rally overnight.
This reminds us:
Daily closes matter. They define structure, trend, and sentiment for the next session.
What didn’t happen (bear close at 5295) is just as important as what did happen (bull close above pivot).
Alternative scenarios help us assess risk and manage our emotions.
🧠Trading Plan for Today
🔹 Plan A – Bullish Continuation
Pullbacks into 5401 (ES) or 18800 (NQ) that hold and reverse → Long toward 5514/19180.
🔹 Plan B – Failed Rally & Reversal
Price stalls near 5475-5490, and can’t hold 5401.
Bearish below → scalp toward 5344 → 5289.
🔹 Plan C – Wednesday Grind
Chop zone between 5401–5475.
Look for clearer structure into Power Hour or wait for Thursday clarity.
🧠Final Thoughts
The rally is real—but so is the risk of reversal.
Wednesday’s price action will likely be messy and unpredictable.
Stay anchored to your key levels:
5401 (ES) and 18800 (NQ) for trend support
5514 (ES) and 19180 (NQ) for targets
5344–5289 below = downside opens wide
Keep your expectations grounded. Price will show its hand—just be ready to listen.
Stay sharp. Stay nimble. Stick to your process.