Morning Update for Subscribers
Is the Bottom In, or Just Another Pop & Drop?
📈 Morning Update for Subscribers
🔍 Is the Bottom In, or Just Another Pop & Drop?
The market continues to close below 5975 ($ES) & 21110 ($NQ), but overnight trading saw another rally attempt. If this pattern keeps repeating—weak closes but strong overnight bounces—it can suggest that a bottom is forming. However, skepticism is warranted.
A daily close above 5995 ($ES) & 21300 ($NQ) would be the first sign of real strength, but until then, this could just be another pop and drop setup.
📊 Market Overview & Open Pivots
🔹 $ES Open Pivot: 5997
🔹 $NQ Open Pivot: 21328
These levels set the tone for today’s session. Trading above them signals buyers attempting control, while trading below favors continued selling pressure.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
🚀 Upside Potential – What Bulls Need to Do
✅ 5995 ($ES) & 21300 ($NQ) – Daily Close Above Required
If prices hold above 5995 & 21300 throughout the session, it suggests bulls are absorbing supply.
A close above 5995 would open the door for a push toward 6030-6050.
🎯 Upside Targets:
6030 ($ES) & 21405 ($NQ) – First resistance test.
6050 ($ES) & 21570 ($NQ) – The key untested level from last week.
❌ Downside Risks – What Sellers Want to See
🔻 5975 ($ES) & 21130 ($NQ) – Key Rejection Zones
If these levels fail, expect more downside.
📍 Rug pull levels:
5950 ($ES) & 20971 ($NQ) – A breakdown below here suggests another wave of selling.
Next downside target: 5935 ($ES) & 20800 ($NQ).
📚 Market Education: Pop & Drop Setups
A Pop & Drop Setup occurs when price rallies early in the session, only to reverse and trade lower later in the day.
🔎 Signs to Watch For:
1️⃣ Gap up or strong open, but price struggles to hold gains.
2️⃣ Failure to sustain new highs – buyers hesitate, volume weakens.
3️⃣ Key resistance rejection – sellers step in at major levels (e.g., 6030-6050).
4️⃣ Break below intraday support – confirming the drop.
🔹 How to Trade It:
Wait for price to rally into resistance, then watch for signs of exhaustion (wick rejections, lower highs, declining volume).
Look for confirmation via a break of intraday support before entering shorts.
📍 Final Thoughts – Cautious Optimism or Another Trap?
✔ Overnight strength means bulls are trying, but the real test is a daily close above 5995.
✔ Sellers still have the advantage below 5975—watch for another pop and drop.
✔ Use confirmation before jumping in—this market remains volatile.
🚀 Trade smart, stay patient, and let the price action guide your decisions.