Morning Update for Subscribers
Holiday Session Bounce? Let’s Talk Structure
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
Holiday Session Bounce? Let’s Talk Structure
📊 Open Pivots
$ES: 5998
$NQ: 21787
Yes, it's Juneteenth and an official U.S. market holiday, but enough of you asked — so here’s your update. While cash markets are closed, futures are trading a half-day, and what a night it’s been.
📈 Market Overview
We nailed yesterday’s short setup — and what a call it was.
$ES dropped nearly 100 points, and $NQ tagged right below our 21676 support zone.
This morning, NQ has carved out a solid short-term bottom, tagging levels that align almost perfectly with the xx500 June levels and nearly 21700 on the September contract.
$ES also respected our key support zone at 5970–5978, forming a potential bounce structure.
But let’s be very clear:
This is a low liquidity session.
It’s not a full trading day.
And anything can still happen.
We're likely entering a temporary pause in selling — but how meaningful this bounce is depends on what happens next.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Rejection Without Acceptance Is Just Noise
Right now, we have a reactive bounce, not initiative buying.
There's a difference.
Bounces without confirmation are dangerous in low-liquidity environments — especially into OPEX Friday where traps and misdirection are common.
What we have so far is a classic bear trend day setup:
🔻 Sharp drop
🔄 Temporary bounce
🧠 Key decision zone coming next
That decision zone?
🔸 $ES: 5988–5995
🔸 $NQ: 21730–21790
Failure to reclaim those with authority, and we’re likely heading back toward lower support zones — just not necessarily today.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch
$ES (Sept Contracts)
🔹 Immediate Support: 5970 → must hold
🔹 Breakdown Target (not likely today): 5930
🔹 Resistance: 5988 → 5995 → 6005
🔹 Trend Shift Trigger: Hourly bar closes above 5995
$NQ (Sept Contracts)
🔹 Immediate Support: 21676 → held for now
🔹 Breakdown Target: 21405–21420
🔹 Resistance: 21730 → 21790
🔹 Trend Shift Trigger: Bar closes above 21790 with follow-through
🧠 Tactical Bias
I believe the market should bounce here — but belief isn’t confirmation.
It all hinges on the zones above:
✅ Closes above 5988 / 21730? → Path opens for relief rally to 5995–6005 and 21844+
❌ Fails below 5978 / 21690 again? → Buyers are vulnerable; expect liquidation risk to return
This isn’t a day to chase. It’s a day to react with control.
⚠️ Holiday Session Reminder
→ Futures close early
→ Liquidity is thin
→ Any move — up or down — can be exaggerated
→ Big players often wait until full session resumes
Also remember:
Friday is OPEX — and setups during holiday-shortened weeks can be deceptive and designed to trap both sides.
🎙️ Final Thought – Stay Nimble, Don’t Assume
Markets often repeat behavior — until they don’t.
This looks like the same playbook, but the magnitude of the drop adds new risk to the bounce narrative.
Today’s bounce is real only if it holds and builds. Until then, it’s just a temporary reprieve in a bigger pullback.
📌 Watch for bar closes above 5988 / 21730
📌 Respect 5970 as critical support
📌 Stay nimble — low liquidity makes everything more extreme
“On holidays, the smart money plays defense. Let the market show its hand — then strike.”