Morning Update for Subscribers
Fed Day Fireworks Ahead
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Fed Day Fireworks Ahead
âš™ Open Pivots:
$ES: 5651
$NQ: 19957
The market was quietly setting up for continuation lower after closing beneath $ES 5635, a key pivot level. But just as the Globex session opened, a news headline triggered a sharp 2% rally, catapulting price back into the upper zone and holding above the prior range highs for most of the session.
Today is FOMC Rate Decision Day—and that means one thing: volatility.
We’re likely to see massive swings, fakeouts, and reversals. Days like today are not about logic—they're about positioning, liquidity grabs, and reaction to tone.
Expectations are leaning toward a hold on rates, but the language in the Fed statement and Powell's press conference will be the real market movers.
📌 Key Scenarios to Prepare For
Scenario A: Breakout and Rally
Above 5684 → 5738 → 5784 → 5820
Buyers will aim to press for new local highs.
Watch 5738 carefully – it’s a major control zone and a prior weekly close.
Scenario B: Reversal and Selloff
Below 5635 → 5571 → 5500 → 5443
The market loves to overreact. Even if things seem bullish, a single word from Powell can shift tone.
5500 is critical – break that and the long liquidation cascade could begin.
Scenario C: Whipsaw Chaos
Markets test both sides of the range.
Don’t get chopped—wait for confirmation and volume to validate moves.
📚 Trader Education – How to Survive Fed Days
Expect traps and reversals. The first move after the announcement is usually fake.
Watch the 2:00 PM ET candle and the 2:30 PM press conference. These are the volatility spikes.
Use higher time frames to filter noise. The 5-minute chart will lie to you today.
Reduce size, increase patience. Volatility expands risk. You don't need to hit a home run.
React, don’t predict. Let price tell you what it wants after liquidity clears out.
🎯 Today’s Control Zones
Bullish Bias: Above 5684
Bearish Bias: Below 5635
Neutral Battle Zone: 5635–5684 – Expect chop, traps, and no clear direction until this breaks.
Stay sharp and stay flexible. Today is a day where discipline trumps prediction. Let price prove it.
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