Morning Update for Subscribers

Good morning, traders!

📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
🌞 Good morning, traders!

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📊 Market Overview & Open Pivots

🔹 $ES Open Pivot: 5229
🔹 $NQ Open Pivot: 17997

Well, let’s just say… I may have let a bit of my bearish bias sneak in yesterday 😜 — but that’s why we trade the chart, not our opinions.

Markets are up big off the lows, and we’ve officially broken the recent trendline down. That doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods yet — it just means sellers have been squeezed and buyers are in control for now.

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🔑 Key Levels to Watch

🚀 Upside Momentum (Buyers in Control)

• $ES:

  • 5166 → major pivot from prior structure (now cleared)

  • 5223 → new breakout zone

  • 5260 → strong resistance. Holding above this confirms control

  • 5420 → extreme target if squeeze continues

• $NQ:

  • 17900 → breakout base

  • 18160 → breakout target

  • 18375 → next bull magnet

  • 18630 → extreme squeeze target

🔻 Downside Reversal Triggers

• $ES:

  • Break below 5166 reopens sellers’ path

  • Below 5120 → likely heads back toward 5000

• $NQ:

  • Below 17830 = sign of bull exhaustion

  • Below 17575 = confirmation sellers are back

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🧠 Market Psychology & Education

This is a textbook “crash rally”:

• Deep selling → emotional capitulation → rapid, reflexive rally

• Most of the buying is forced by short covering, not genuine bullish interest

• These moves are often the most violent when sentiment is most bearish

🔎 Remember:

• The biggest upside moves happen during bear markets

• The biggest downside moves happen after bull euphoria

This is why we always prepare for both directions, and stick to levels and structure.

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🎯 Trading Plan & Scenarios

⚙️ Scenario 1: Squeeze Continues

• Plan: Above 5223 ($ES), 17990 ($NQ) — favor long setups

• Target: 5260 ($ES), 18160 ($NQ)

• Ideal entry: Pullbacks into VWAP or open pivot with strong buyers stepping in

• Stop: Below 5200 ($ES)

⚙️ Scenario 2: False Rally → Fade

• Plan: Look for failure to hold 5260 ($ES), 18160 ($NQ)

• Trigger short on lower high or rejection wicks at resistance

• Target: 5166, then 5120 ($ES) / 17575 ($NQ)

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🧭 Final Thoughts – Trade With Structure, Not Emotion

✔️ Don't let personal bias cloud the setups — the market will humble us
✔️ The trend has shifted for now — but how long it holds depends on today’s strength
✔️ 5260 is a huge battleground — if sellers reclaim it, expect renewed downside
✔️ If we push and hold above 5420 this week… it’s time to seriously reassess the bear thesis short-term

Let’s stay sharp, disciplined, and focused on execution.

💪 Happy trading!
#MorningUpdate #AuctionTheory #ES_F #NQ_F #DayTradingInsights