Morning Update for Subscribers
Big Ranges Persist – Breakout Imminent After Overnight Whipsaw
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
🔄 Big Ranges Persist – Breakout Imminent After Overnight Whipsaw
📊 Open Pivots for Today:
$ES: 5310
$NQ: 18507
📌 Market Overview
We’re entering the day after another overnight 200+ point range in $ES, signaling that another explosive move is likely brewing.
Yesterday’s soft close foreshadowed weakness, and Globex confirmed it with a flush to 5200, which was then aggressively bought. The market remains in a coiled state, with major breakout levels within reach on both sides. The compression is tight—and history tells us that when volatility compresses in a bear cycle, it often precedes a violent resolution.
📌 Key Inflection Levels – $ES
🔹 Resistance: 5378 → Breakout level for upside continuation
🔹 Support: 5238 → Breakdown trigger into deeper liquidation
🔹 Current Battleground: 5310–5320 → Where the market is trying to establish bias
📌 Key Inflection Levels – $NQ
🔹 Daily Bias Pivot: 18405
Above leads to 18757
Below opens path to 18130
🔹 Current Reversal Zone: 18500–18600 → Bulls must hold this to validate any upward bias
🧭 Scenarios for Today
✅ Scenario 1 – Breakout Higher
If $ES reclaims and holds above 5378, and $NQ above 18757, we could see an aggressive squeeze.
🔼 Targets:
$ES: 5420 → 5500
$NQ: 19100 → 19350
❌ Scenario 2 – Breakdown Lower
If price fails at 5310–5320 and breaks below 5238, bears regain full control.
🔽 Targets:
$ES: 5140 → 5000
$NQ: 18130 → 17850
🔁 Scenario 3 – Consolidation Inside Range
If 5310–5378 holds for most of the session, expect a chop zone until the breakout.
A great opportunity to scalp fades at range extremes but be quick and stay alert.
📚 Educational Insight: Trading Compression in Bear Markets
In high-volatility bear environments:
Price consolidates just before a major move.
These tight compressions are deceptive—they appear stable but are fueling energy for a trend move.
Clues of direction often emerge via failed retests of prior support or resistance (e.g., failed bounce at 5378 or fake breakdown under 5238).
📌 Pro Tip:
If you see price break a key level but then snap back inside, that’s a “look below and fail” or “look above and fail”—often leading to fast reversals in the opposite direction.
📌 Final Thoughts
200pt ranges overnight mean volatility is very much alive.
A big move is coming—we’re watching 5378 and 5238 ($ES) closely.
For $NQ, it’s about control above/below 18405.
Don’t trade noise—wait for confirmation, respect risk, and react to the direction with clarity.
Stay focused, and let the market show its hand.
#MorningUpdate #FuturesTrading #ES #NQ #BearMarketVolatility #BreakoutWatch #SubscriberOnly