Morning Update for Subscribers

Extreme Volatility Continues After Historic Crash

📢 Morning Update for Subscribers

📌 Extreme Volatility Continues After Historic Crash

---

📊 Market Overview

Good morning, traders!

The markets dropped hard yesterday in one of the most aggressive sessions of the year.

• $NQ fell over 1300 points

• $ES dropped nearly 500 points

We were ahead of the curve, calling short trades at the top of the move—this is the precision and value we strive to bring you every day.

Today is expected to be even more volatile, although it’s unlikely we’ll exceed yesterday’s range. However, micro-volatility will be elevated. Expect fast, sharp rotations across all time frames.

---

🧭 Open Pivots:

• $ES: 4948

• $NQ: 17103

These pivots give us today's directional bias. Opening below them, as we are today, signals that sellers remain in control.

---

📌 Trading Environment: Volatility Metrics

For $ES today, keep this scale in mind:

• 🔹 20–60 pt rotations = Normal Noise

• 🔹 100 pt rotations = Expected Movement

• 🔹 200 pt rotations = Extreme Move

• 🔻 400 pt rotation = Market Blow

• 🔻 600 pt rotation = Time to Fade the Move

This context helps frame how much is too much and when to expect exhaustion or reversal behavior.

---

📈 Key Levels to Watch

🔻 Downside Targets

• 4975 – Major breakdown trigger. A failure to stay below here would signal sellers are losing grip.

• 4800 – Breakdown continuation level. This opens the door to:

  • 4600 → 4415 → 4200 → Long-term Target: 4100

🚀 Upside Retrace Zones

• 4980 – First sign of seller fatigue. Above here, price may attempt retrace.

• 5070 → 5122 – Dead zone from last breakdown. If price returns here, it's a trap zone for late longs.

• 5250s – Only bullish above here on a daily close.

---

📌 Trading Plan & Scenarios

Scenario 1: Breakdown Below 4975

• If we hold below 4975, we continue selling toward 4800.

• Below 4800, next flushes could trigger 4415 and even 4100.

• Look for bear flags and continuation patterns on 5m/15m timeframes.

Scenario 2: Bear Trap Above 4980

• Quick reclaim of 4980 followed by sharp buying pressure? Watch for short-covering rally.

• Target: 5070–5122 zone for liquidity.

• These rallies are great for fading after exhaustion.

Scenario 3: Neutral Chop

• If price stalls between 4940–4980, expect chop.

• Wait for clear break from this range before committing to directional trades.

---

📚 Educational Insight: Price Action in High Volatility Regimes

• Markets must move UP to go DOWN and DOWN to go UP.
  A market can’t crash without retracing first. Same with rallies—they need profit-taking dips to sustain momentum.

• What makes a trend?
  When either buying or selling pressure consistently overpowers the opposing side.

• Today’s lesson: Don’t fear the bounce.
  Even in crashes, markets bounce big. The size of the rally isn’t confirmation of strength—it may be a trap.
  Let price tell the story: When do levels break or hold? Are bars closing above/below key zones? Is there exhaustion or continuation?

• Don’t chase. Let the tape confirm.

---

📌 Final Thoughts

• 🔥 Volatility is extreme. Stay sharp.

• 🧠 Don’t let emotions take over—trade the plan, not the fear.

• ⚠️ 4975 is your line in the sand. It tells us if this is another cascade or a setup for squeeze.

• 📉 We are still in a sell-the-rip environment.

• 📈 But don’t be surprised if prices spike 200-500pts and then drop again just as fast.

---

💡 Stay patient. Stay nimble. Protect capital.
Let the levels do the talking.