Morning Update for Subscribers
Rollover Confirmed, But Value Reversion Attempt Underway
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers – Rollover Confirmed, But Value Reversion Attempt Underway
📊 Open Pivots:
ES: 5925
NQ: 21318
🧭 Market Overview – Overnight Breakdown, But Bounce Attempt in Progress
Markets rolled over overnight—ES tagged our 5905 target and NQ hit the 21220s, validating the downside thesis we've tracked for days. Now, the market is attempting to rally back into value—but so far, it’s doing so without conviction.
We’re in a fragile bounce environment, where the auction is probing higher—but any failure to reclaim key levels can reignite the flush.
An RTH open below 5935 (ES) and 21303 (NQ) signals that sellers still have control.
A reclaim above = possible bear trap → watch 21275 in NQ closely.
📌 Key Intraday Zones to Watch
🔻 Downside Breakdown Levels
ES: 5915 → 5880 → 5840
NQ: 21303 → 21275 → 21100 → 20800
If sellers regain momentum under 21275 / 5935, expect downside acceleration into key demand zones.
🔼 Upside Reclaim Zones
ES: 5935 → 5958 → 5970
NQ: 21360 → 21460s
These levels mark the value reversion path. If bulls reclaim them, we could see a sharp rally as trapped shorts exit.
🎯 Trade Scenarios for Today
📍 Scenario 1: Reclaim 5935 / 21303 → Bear Trap Reversal
If price builds above these key pivots, a short squeeze could target 5958 / 21460s.
📈 Strategy: Watch for reclaim confirmation. NQ may move fast—get in early or miss it. Use clear risk levels under 21275.
📍 Scenario 2: Reject at 5935 / 21303 → Continuation Flush
If the bounce attempt stalls here, look for sellers to press back toward 5880 / 21100.
📉 Strategy: Fade weak rallies into resistance zones. Let sellers prove continuation with strong momentum.
📍 Scenario 3: Range Inside Value (5880–5958 / 21100–21460)
Price churns inside prior balance. No initiative from either side.
⚖️ Strategy: Fade the extremes. Stay nimble and avoid chasing.
📚 Auction Theory Insight – Trading Back Into Value Is a Sign of Weak Sellers
When price breaks down but quickly trades back into the prior value area, it signals:
“Effort without result” from the breakout side—in this case, the sellers.
That’s the foundation of a bear trap. If price re-accepts above 5935 / 21303 and holds → sellers lose control of the auction and buyers can drive short-term reversion.
🔚 Final Thoughts – Watch 5935 and 21303 Like a Hawk
Below those levels = seller dominance → look for continuation flush
Above those levels = failed breakdown → watch for fast rally
NQ can rip quickly, and ES won’t lag far behind. Don't get caught thinking—it’ll be too fast.
Let price tell the story. Stay adaptive, not reactive.
#MorningUpdate #AuctionMarketTheory #ES #NQ #FuturesTrading #BearTrap #PriceAction