Morning Update for Subscribers
Decision Day: Relief Rally or More Downside?
📢 Morning Update for Subscribers
🔍 Decision Day: Relief Rally or More Downside?
📊 Market Overview & Open Pivots
📌 Open Pivots:
🔸 $ES: 5581
🔸 $NQ: 19498
✅ Key Observations:
The downtrend remains intact, but a relief rally is inevitable at some point. The question is—is today the day?
$NQ closed below 19300 for the first time since last September, suggesting a deeper sell-off, yet today we’re seeing an attempt at a head-fake snapback move.
$ES nearly hit 5500 and has now bounced back to the 5575 zone—a key battleground for the day.
$NQ hesitation at 19500 suggests potential resistance—buyers need a strong push above this level to confirm upside momentum.
🔹 Bottoming Attempt or More Selling?
Buyers need to go on offense quickly—Friday has not been favorable for bulls recently.
The market is building energy—a breakaway move is coming soon.
Expect potential drop-and-pop setups—a flush below key levels followed by a sharp reversal.
📚 Market Education: Understanding Congestion Zones
A congestion zone is a period of choppy price action where the market consolidates before making a decisive move. It’s like a spring coiling before exploding in one direction.
How to Trade Congestion Zones?
1️⃣ Wait for a Breakout: Identify the range and trade the breakout direction.
2️⃣ Fake Moves Are Common: Initial moves often trap traders before the real move starts.
3️⃣ Volume & Speed Confirm the Move: Watch for a surge in momentum after a breakout.
🔹 Today's Congestion Zone:
$ES: 5561 – 5620
$NQ: 19405 – 19570
A breakout beyond these levels sets the direction for the next move.
🔑 Key Levels & Trading Plan
🚀 Bullish Scenario – Relief Rally Attempt
✅ Key Upside Resistance Levels:
$ES: 5609 → 5650 → 5718
$NQ: 19570 → 19800
🔹 How to Trade It:
A move above 5609 ($ES) and 19570 ($NQ) could trigger short-covering and send prices higher.
If price dips below 5561/19405 and reclaims it quickly, it may set up a drop-and-pop reversal trade.
🔻 Bearish Scenario – More Selling & New Lows
🚨 Key Downside Support Levels:
$ES: 5561 → 5535 → 5500
$NQ: 19405 → 19250 → 19000
🔹 How to Trade It:
If 5561 ($ES) and 19405 ($NQ) break and sellers hold below these levels, expect another flush down.
A daily close under 5535 ($ES) and 19300 ($NQ) increases the probability of deeper downside next week.
📌 Final Thoughts – What to Watch Into the Weekend
✔ Market at a key inflection point—rally or flush?
✔ Buyers must defend 5561 ($ES) and 19405 ($NQ) to have a shot at reversing.
✔ Sellers still control the trend—rallies are suspect until proven otherwise.
✔ Expect volatility and be prepared for fake moves before the real breakout.
🔎 Let price confirm direction before making aggressive plays. Stay sharp!