Power Hour Market Update for Subscribers
Final Hour Trading Outlook & Key Levels
📢 Power Hour Market Update for Subscribers
📅 Final Hour Trading Outlook & Key Levels
🔍 Market Overview: Sellers on Defense After Intraday Trend Breakout
Today, sellers stepped in aggressively once again, but after failing to make new lows, the market triggered an intraday trend breakout.
However, while this breakout has given bulls temporary control, it’s likely a fade setup rather than the start of a sustained rally. Sellers are now on the defensive, but the burden remains on buyers to hold their gains and extend the move higher.
📊 Power Pivots & Market Structure
🔸 $ES Power Pivot: 5847
🔸 $NQ Power Pivot: 21646
These pivots will act as key inflection points into the close.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
📈 Upside Resistance – Where Sellers Will Fight Back
🔹 5861-5875 ($ES) & 21757 ($NQ) – Key Resistance Zone
If price stalls here, sellers will attempt to fade the move.
Failure to break through could lead to a rejection and reversal into the close.
Daily Close Above 5861: Could shift momentum further toward buyers.
🎯 Upside Target if Buyers Maintain Control:
5903-5915 ($ES) & 21900 ($NQ) → Major resistance where short-covering can accelerate.
📉 Downside Risks – Where Buyers Need to Hold the Line
🔻 5740s ($ES) & 20100 ($NQ) – The Must-Hold Support
This is the last line of defense before another breakdown.
If price revisits this zone, it could signal another round of selling pressure.
🔻 Squeeze Levels to Watch:
5807 ($ES) & 20403 ($NQ) – Bull/Bear Line
Holding above = short-term bullish continuation.
Losing this level = trap rally and reversal lower.
📍 If sellers push below 5740s and 20100, downside targets become:
5700 ($ES) & 19850 ($NQ) → Next major liquidity zones.
📚 Market Education: The Nature of Failed Lows & Trend Reversals
🔹 Why Did the Market Reverse Today?
Sellers failed to push prices to new lows, triggering short covering and a squeeze.
This kind of intraday trend breakout is common after markets extend lower for multiple days without significant relief.
🔹 Why the Rally Could Fade
This breakout is happening within a broader downtrend.
Until key levels like 5861 & 21757 break convincingly, we must assume it’s a countertrend move that could fade back down.
True trend reversals require strong closes above major resistance, not just intraday rallies.
🔹 How to Spot a Fake Breakout vs. a True Reversal
1️⃣ Strong closes above key resistance = potential reversal.
2️⃣ Weak closes near the highs = potential fade.
3️⃣ Fast rejection of gains = bull trap.
💡 Today’s action suggests sellers lost control temporarily, but if price cannot maintain above key squeeze levels, another move lower remains possible.
🔎 Trading Plan & Scenarios Into the Close
📍 Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation
If price holds above 5807 ($ES) & 20403 ($NQ), buyers remain in control.
Look for continuation toward 5861 & 21757.
📍 Targets:
First resistance: 5861 ($ES) & 21757 ($NQ).
Higher resistance: 5903 ($ES) & 21900 ($NQ).
📍 Scenario 2: Fake Breakout & Reversal Lower
If price fails at 5861-5875 ($ES) or 21757 ($NQ), watch for a rejection.
Sellers will look to fade the move back below 5807 & 20403.
📍 Targets:
First downside target: 5740s ($ES) & 20100 ($NQ).
Lower target: 5700s ($ES) & 19850 ($NQ).
📍 Scenario 3: Neutral Close – Consolidation Before Next Move
If price remains between 5807-5861 ($ES) & 20403-21757 ($NQ), expect choppy action into tomorrow.
Could be setting up for the next major directional move.
📌 Final Thoughts – The Close Will Be Critical
✔ Key Resistance: 5861 ($ES) & 21757 ($NQ) – Watch for rejection or breakout confirmation.
✔ Key Support: 5807 ($ES) & 20403 ($NQ) – Staying above keeps buyers in control.
✔ Major Downside Risk: 5740s ($ES) & 20100 ($NQ) – A failure here could bring new lows.
✔ Daily Close Above 5861 = More Upside, Below 5807 = More Selling.
🔎 Watch today’s final hour closely—how we close will determine if this rally is real or just a short-lived squeeze before more selling.
💡 Stay patient, let the market reveal its next move, and trade the confirmation, not the expectation.
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