Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Early Exhaustion, But Sellers Still Hold Control
📢 Power Hour Update for Subscribers – Early Exhaustion, But Sellers Still Hold Control
📊 Power Pivots:
ES: 5883
NQ: 21289
🧭 Market Recap – Bounce Off Lows, But No Clear Victory Yet
Sellers came in early this morning with a push down to ES 5840 and NQ 21100, but that move quickly stalled. We saw a classic exhaustion low, with buyers stepping in to retrace much of the move.
ES rallied back up to 5889, which lines up with the prior weekly low and recent breakdown zone.
NQ rebounded to 21330s, just under resistance at 21360.
This move back into range is significant—but not yet decisive. Sellers still retain control of the larger structure, having held most of yesterday’s downside gains. Power Pivots are sitting near current price, signaling a moment of indecision.
📌 Key Levels Into the Close
🔼 Upside Reclaim Zones
ES: 5889 → 5902
NQ: 21360 → 21420
Reclaiming and closing above these would signal more aggressive short covering and possible reversal setups into Monday.
🔻 Support and Breakdown Watch
ES: 5865 → Key closing level
NQ: 21140 → Daily battle line
Closing above 5865 / 21140 signals potential for more squeeze ahead. Closing below leaves the door open for continued downside.
📍 Power Hour Scenarios
📍 Scenario 1: Close Above 5865 / 21140 → Potential for Continuation Squeeze
Buyers defend the reclaim, and short-covering fuels late-day push.
📈 Strategy: Look for strength above 5889 / 21330 to confirm continuation. Target 5902 / 21460 early next week.
📍 Scenario 2: Fade Below 5865 / 21140 → Sellers Retain Control
Price fades under reclaim zone into the bell. Confirms rejection at breakdown zones.
📉 Strategy: Look for VWAP rejection and slow bleed. Watch for volume drop on bounce attempts.
📍 Scenario 3: Range into the Close
Price stays pinned around the Power Pivots (5883 / 21289) into the final hour.
⚖️ Strategy: Avoid chasing. Let closing order flow give us the next clue.
📚 Auction Theory Insight – Reclaim Without Acceptance = Weak Bounce
This bounce off 5840 / 21100 looks clean—but unless buyers can build value above the reclaim zones, it's just a responsive move, not initiative buying.
If we fail to close strong, this becomes a bear flag, not a reversal.
🔚 Final Thoughts – Close Matters Today
Above 5865 / 21140 → Room for more squeeze next week
Below 5865 / 21140 → Structure still favors sellers
Don’t let a midday bounce distract from the bigger picture. Watch the close like a sniper.
Let the market prove it. Stay precise, stay patient.
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