Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Breakout, Fade… Now What? The Battle for 6009 Begins
📢 Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Breakout, Fade… Now What? The Battle for 6009 Begins
📊 Power Pivots:
$ES: 5989
$NQ: 21703
🧭 Market Recap – Squeeze, Reject, Reset
Today’s session followed a familiar structure:
✅ Break key supports overnight →
✅ Hold the levels at 5970 ($ES) and 21622 ($NQ) →
✅ Trigger a fast squeeze into known resistance →
✅ Fade right back to the scene of the breakout
$ES surged to 6030
$NQ tapped 21850s
Then… a clean rejection.
Now? Both are pinned right back to 5970 and 21622.
This was not sustained initiative. This was a reactive squeeze — built on short covering, not new commitment. And the fact that it rolled cleanly all the way back to the base tells you what you need to know:
Downtrend context remains intact.
But that doesn’t mean sellers have full control — yet.
The structure into Power Hour is balanced. We’ve reset the field. Now, it’s about whether buyers reclaim 6009 / 21844 or if sellers press for breakdown continuation into the close.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Squeeze Within a Bearish Context
This is a classic auction setup:
Responsive buying off known support
Quick squeeze into supply
Failure to build value at highs
Reversion to the mean
Markets don’t trend in straight lines.
They expand, trap, reject, and then decide.
Today’s pop was initiative-looking — but it lacked follow-through. Why? Because value never shifted. Volume never migrated above 6009 or 21844. That’s a key tell.
Now we’re sitting right back inside the lower composite zone.
We ask:
→ Will sellers extend control below 5970 / 21622?
→ Or will buyers hold structure and mount a late-day reclaim?
The auction is showing us it’s not done testing — and the next move likely sets the tone for the rest of the week.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch Into the Close
$ES:
🔺 Reclaim Zone: 6009 → 6030
🔻 Support Zone: 5970 → 5954 → 5902
📍 Bias Line: 5989
🚨 Breakdown Target: 5902 = imbalance extension
$NQ:
🔺 Reclaim Zone: 21844 → 21885
🔻 Support Zone: 21622 → 21533 → 21405
📍 Bias Line: 21703
🚨 Breakdown Target: 21405 = downside auction completion
📖 Educational Cue – Reclaim Failure vs. Structural Fade
When price reclaims a prior shelf like 6009 or 21844 and fails to build — that’s not initiative buying, that’s reactive fading.
Key signs you’re dealing with a reclaim fade:
Bar closes weak after reclaim
Delta divergence (buyers present, but price doesn’t advance)
Prior resistance holds as a magnet, not as a springboard
That’s what happened today.
When a rally fizzles after hitting well-known resistance, don’t assume trend continuation — look for signs of rejection, and position accordingly.
🧠 Scenario Planning – Power Hour Paths
Scenario 1 – Breakdown Resumes
→ Trigger: $ES loses 5970 with impulse; $NQ fails 21622
→ Target: $ES 5954 → 5902
→ $NQ 21533 → 21405
→ Confirmation: Failed reclaim attempts at 5989 / 21703 with heavy sellers
Scenario 2 – Trap and Reclaim
→ Trigger: $ES reclaims 6009; $NQ pushes above 21844
→ Target: $ES 6030 retest, $NQ 21885 → 21936
→ Invalidation: Failure to hold above reclaim zones after entry
→ Confirmation: 5m/30m bar closes above with volume tailwind
Scenario 3 – Balance to the Bell
→ Trigger: Both indices hold inside 5970–6009 and 21622–21844
→ Target: Rotational ping-pong into close
→ Confirmation: No initiative; overlapping structure; neutral delta
🔚 Final Execution Cue
The day gave you both sides — a breakdown scare, and a squeeze fade. Now the field is even. And the Power Hour close will define whether we’re building value lower, or prepping another round of trap and reclaim.
Keep size tight. Let price declare intent.
📌 Final Thoughts – Same Patterns, But New Stakes
We’ve seen this before — dip, squeeze, fade.
But we haven’t seen it this deep since the conflict headlines.
If price closes below 5970 / 21622, it's a message: the rally’s lost its grip.
If it reclaims 6009 / 21844 — then the squeeze isn’t done yet.
🧠 You don’t need to guess who wins — just listen to where price is accepted.
⚔️ Wait for control to be shown — not assumed.
Let structure lead. Let price confirm. Be ready either way.