Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Bear Trap Bounce or New Leg Higher?
📢 Power Hour Update for Subscribers
🔄 Bear Trap Bounce or New Leg Higher?
📊 Power Pivots
🔹 $ES: 5681
🔹 $NQ: 19637
🕯️ Market Recap: Massive Bear Trap at the Open
Today’s action delivered a textbook bear trap. After what looked like a fresh breakdown early in the session, buyers stepped in hard, reversing the move and squeezing price back up to 5740 ($ES) and 19900 ($NQ) — both levels of interest from earlier this week.
But the squeeze didn’t hold completely.
We’ve since seen a pullback to the 5675–5680 zone on ES and to the 19600s on NQ, aligning closely with today’s Power Pivots. This region is now critical to determine whether bulls can maintain momentum or if it was just a temporary short-covering move.
📌 Key Levels into the Close
🔻 Downside Support Zones
5625 ($ES): Yesterday’s inflection level and a key battle zone this week. A close below this would reintroduce the bearish narrative.
19600–19520 ($NQ): Breakdown retest zone. If price closes below, watch for weakness to resume overnight.
🔺 Upside Resistance Zones
5697 ($ES): “Rug pull” level and former key support. Sellers need to hold this line into the close.
19900 ($NQ): The morning high and bull trap risk if sellers retake control.
📚 Market Education: Understanding Bear Traps & Retracements
A bear trap occurs when price breaks below a major support level, entices short sellers in, and then quickly reclaims the level, forcing those shorts to cover — adding fuel to a fast reversal rally.
But here's the trick:
Just because it’s a bear trap doesn’t mean the trend is over.
In strong downtrends, deep retracements are common — even expected — before continuation lower. The market needs to flush out the extremes and create imbalance. That’s what today was.
Clue for traders: Watch how price behaves around prior breakdown zones like 5697 or 19900. Rejections = trend resumes. Breaks and holds = buyers gain control.
🎯 Trading Plan & Scenarios for the Close
✅ Scenario 1: Fade the Squeeze
If price fails to hold above Power Pivot and closes below 5625, it confirms the bounce was short-covering only.
Watch for downside continuation overnight or into tomorrow’s open.
✅ Scenario 2: Continuation Squeeze
If price can reclaim 5697 and hold, expect a push into 5740–5760 resistance.
Bulls want to see a strong close north of 5700 to build momentum into midweek.
✅ Scenario 3: Sideways Compression
Price holds between 5625–5697 without breakout or breakdown.
Expect chop until a new catalyst emerges — good time to reduce size and observe.
📌 Final Thoughts – Watch the Close Carefully
Today’s action provided valuable insight into how aggressively buyers are defending major levels — but also showed that resistance still matters. The market remains volatile, and the final hour could tip the scales.
Stay sharp, trade your zones, and protect those gains.
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