Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Excess Built the Reversal—But Is This Rally Still Running?
📢 Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Excess Built the Reversal—But Is This Rally Still Running?
📊 Power Pivots:
ES: 5984
NQ: 21712
🧭 Market Overview – Excess, Imbalance, and the Test of Acceptance
The session began with a dip—but it wasn’t weakness. It was preparation. Buyers defended above 5935 with precision, and the response was surgical: excess formed, and imbalance ignited. A clean upward auction followed, fueled not by volume at price, but by urgency—sellers vacated, and buyers had to chase.
This was a continuation move, not a fresh discovery. Value has not migrated higher; it’s still tethered to the 5890–5924 composite zone. Today’s structure is initiative-heavy but fragile. By the time ES tagged 5981 and NQ hit our old liquidation magnet at 21757, the rally’s fuel tank flashed yellow. The reaction was immediate: a fast, sharp liquidation break—30 points off ES, 120 off NQ.
But here’s what matters: there was no follow-through.
Both indices snapped back to the Power Pivot zones—5980s for ES and 21712 for NQ. That reclaim sends a clear message: buyers aren’t done… but they’re tired. Price is climbing, but participation is thinning.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Transition or Terminal?
We are still inside an initiative imbalance, birthed from the 5935 trap. Today is the second leg of that imbalance—but it's now reaching potential exhaustion.
The failure to build sustained value above 5984/21712 means this rally has not matured into a new balance—it’s still exploring. Without value acceptance, any push higher is vulnerable to sharp reversals. And yet, if we hold above 5975/21700 into the close, initiative still owns the narrative.
Today’s excess wasn’t on the lows—it was on the highs. That suggests a potential responsive rejection at the top of the auction, rather than exhaustion of demand. If price fails to build at these levels, we risk transitioning into responsive activity overnight.
In AMT terms, this is a potential shift from initiative continuation to responsive transition. Watch value development closely. Acceptance above 5984 and 21712 is needed to justify further upside.
❓ What is the market attempting to do?
Initiate a breakout into new value above the prior balance.
🤔 Is it succeeding?
Partially. Price is exploring higher, but value isn’t migrating yet. That makes this move vulnerable.
🎯 Key Levels
ES:
📈 Breakout Continuation: 5988 → 6003 → 6025
⚠️ Trap Trigger: failure to hold 5975
🧲 Fade Zone Support: 5945 → 5924
NQ:
📈 Breakout Line: 21757 → 21820
⚠️ Trap Risk: failure below 21700
🧲 Fade Zone: 21570 → 21485
📖 Educational Cue
Initiative days without value migration are auctions without conviction. Don’t confuse range extension with acceptance. Watch for failed auction behavior—price moves hard, then snaps back. That’s your cue the move lacked depth. Great traders don’t just trade direction—they trade intent + acceptance.
🧠 Scenario Branches
📈 Continuation Up
Trigger: Hold above 5975 (ES) and 21700 (NQ)
Target: 6003 → 6025 (ES), 21820+ (NQ)
Invalidation: Break and hold below 5968/21680
Confirmation: VWAP reclaim + no responsive rejection at highs
🚨 Trap & Reversal
Trigger: Rejection at 5988/21757 with no value hold
Target: Fast drop to 5945/21570
Invalidation: Acceptance above highs with strength
Confirmation: Failed breakout structure + delta divergence + quick rejection
🔄 Chop / Coil Setup
Trigger: Range between 5965–5985 (ES) and 21680–21757 (NQ)
Target: Coil into tomorrow’s CPI or macro driver
Invalidation: Breakout from range with volume + speed
Confirmation: Value rotation, slow tape, no initiative follow-through
🔚 Final Execution Cue
Trend days often end quiet—but traps lurk at the close. Don’t fade blindly. Don’t chase late. Let price prove it can hold above Power Pivots. If not, expect responsive fade into the close or overnight dip. Stay reactive. Don’t force hero trades into exhaustion.
📌 Final Thoughts – Hold the High or Get Rolled
This was Day 2 of a rally—and it showed teeth. But excess at highs, lack of value migration, and reflexive liquidation all warn us: this isn’t secure ground yet.
A close above 5975/21700 gives bulls a shot to continue.
A failure to hold invites responsive traps and likely balance.
Initiative is a privilege—not a promise.
Let value confirm before you commit.
Structure first. Emotion never.