Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Reversal Delivered — But the Context Still Leans Up
📢 Power Hour Update for Subscribers
Reversal Delivered — But the Context Still Leans Up
📊 Power Pivots:
$ES: 6029
$NQ: 21883
🧭 Market Recap – Faded from the Highs, But Not the Trend
We called it in real-time: those 22076 ($NQ) and 6040 ($ES) zones were ripe for short setups — and the market delivered.
Right after tagging our key resistance zones, the rug got pulled.
🔻 $NQ dropped nearly 300 points to test 21800
🔻 $ES sank back to 6005, reclaiming the lower balance zone
A textbook liquidation wave.
But let’s zoom out.
This fade came after a 100+ point rally in $ES from last week’s 5940 lows, and a 700-point push in $NQ off 21400s. That’s not bearish — that’s exhaustion.
Price action today was reactive, not trend-shifting.
Fades were clean. Pullbacks worked. But value still remains higher than where we started the week.
So what now?
We’re holding in the 6020s / 21840s — right in the middle of today’s liquidation range.
That means sellers made a statement, but they didn’t seal the deal.
📚 Auction Market Theory Insight – Imbalance Rejected, or Just Rotated?
Today’s rejection of the highs didn’t destroy structure — it defined it.
→ $ES failed to build value above 6040
→ $NQ couldn’t hold initiative past 22076
What followed was a fast rotation back to composite value:
📍 $ES 6005–6020
📍 $NQ 21800–21850
This tells us we’re not in a trend reversal — we’re still inside a bullish structure, now undergoing rebalancing.
What matters now is whether that rebalancing extends or tightens.
If we build below 6040 and 21860s into the close, it signals buyers have lost initiative for the session.
But a reclaim into the close — even marginal — reasserts control.
Structure remains upward-biased, but price is trying to decide if it’s overextended.
🎯 Key Levels into the Close
$ES:
🔹 Support: 6005 → 5984
🔹 Resistance: 6040 → 6070 → 6085
🔹 Closing Line in the Sand: 6040
$NQ:
🔹 Support: 21800 → 21740
🔹 Resistance: 21860 → 22076
🔹 Closing Line in the Sand: 21860
A daily close below 6040 / 21860 implies pressure into tomorrow’s open.
Close above? Structure holds, and the overnight squeeze is in play again.
📖 Educational Cue – The Fade Isn't the End. It's the Signal.
Most traders get excited after a clean reversal.
Professionals get ready during the test of structure.
The fade from highs wasn’t a collapse. It was a reminder:
→ Every auction has to pull back before it extends.
→ Liquidation isn’t trend change — unless it continues with acceptance.
That’s where execution edges are built:
On the distinction between reaction and transition.
🧠 Scenario Planning
Continuation Down
Trigger: Break and 15m close below 6005 / 21800
Target: $ES → 5984, then 5940
$NQ → 21740, then 21676Confirmation: Acceleration with weak buyers on reclaim attempts
Trap & Ramp Reversal
Trigger: $ES reclaims 6040 into close, $NQ holds 21860+
Target: $ES → 6070
$NQ → 22076Confirmation: Strong late-session breadth, spike + hold, aggressive absorption
Neutral Close & Drift
Trigger: Close between 6020–6040 / 21830–21860
Target: Sets up a range open tomorrow
Watch: Overnight gap setup — especially if we close at midpoint
🔚 Final Execution Cue
The market gave us the short setups. They worked.
Now it’s decision time.
Did the fade break trend? Or did it just reload the coil?
Price is trying to answer that into the close. Don’t assume. Watch the edges.
📌 Final Thoughts – It's Not the Fade. It's What Comes After.
Sellers had their move. They took control — briefly.
But unless they close the session below structure, it’s just another failed breakout at the highs, followed by a reversion reset.
Let the close define the tone for tomorrow.
Structure is still bullish — but fragile.
“The best fades come from consensus highs. The best trades come after the crowd assumes it’s over.”
Stay sharp. Watch 6040 and 21860. The real move comes next.